1845 Newcastle

It appears that some posters want to put selections up without any reasoning. This is the forum where they can be posted. "Selection only" post found elsewhere will be deleted
dannyboy65
Posts: 78
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:47 pm

1845 Newcastle

Postby dannyboy65 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 4:36 pm

Anyone else getting Harmonica as a false favorite? I make it no value on the odds offered and Zabeel as the value bet according to my handicapping.

PuzzledLook
Posts: 571
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:02 pm

Re: 1845 Newcastle

Postby PuzzledLook » Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:05 pm

Not my cup of tea looking at a 5 horse race with a supposed favourite at 2/7.

If there is to be a value bet it is Newmarket Warrior.

PuzzledLook
Posts: 571
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:02 pm

Re: 1845 Newcastle

Postby PuzzledLook » Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:55 pm

NEWMARKET WARRIOR WINS

Because of your post I put a small win bet on @ 9-1

dannyboy65
Posts: 78
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:47 pm

Re: 1845 Newcastle

Postby dannyboy65 » Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:37 pm

PuzzledLook wrote:NEWMARKET WARRIOR WINS

Because of your post I put a small win bet on @ 9-1

Nice one, definitely one to lay, it was screaming false, out of interest the value was on every other horse, strike the 2 really high odds horses it left Zabeel and Newmarket

Exch True value
Harmonica 1.29 -4.42
Zabeel 7 2.39
woody 44 37.79
Newmarket 13 7.90
Escape 150 138.10

PuzzledLook
Posts: 571
Joined: Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:02 pm

Re: 1845 Newcastle

Postby PuzzledLook » Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:56 pm

It would not surprise me to see Harmonica running again, probably at Lingfield this time next week with a field of 8/10, still running over the mile BUT with odds about 4-1.

Connections don't want 2-7 odds and by losing today quite significantly the bookies will mark her up about the 4's in her next race. She will probably then take all the beating.

There is a lot of dodgy business going on and it is one of the reasons I shy away from these "so called" Top Trainers.


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