BWCIRE

It appears that some posters want to put selections up without any reasoning. This is the forum where they can be posted. "Selection only" post found elsewhere will be deleted
Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Mon Nov 12, 2018 12:28 pm

I follow this board with great interest and respect all the posters for sharing their ideas and selections, I use the data on Patternform for develop some betting strategies for the UK racing, takes a bit of time to process the numbers, and I am now using the data to develop an approach to the Irish Racing, I thought I would post the selections I am getting in order to track how they perform

Monday 12 November 2018
13:20 Thurl Bellgrove 101.39%
13:55 Thurl Jake Peter 122.61%
15:00 Thurl Fintown Boy 102.24%
15:35 Thurl Whoyakodding 109.27%

There are 4 selections today, I have developed a 'Confidence' level for each runner and have included these, basically the higher the percentage the greater the chance of winning compared to the rest of the field in the race

I'll also post the SR & PL as I go, in order to monitor the performance of the approach
Catspajamas

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby martinkil » Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:10 pm

Sorry for the delay Cat - you next post should be fine

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:51 am

martinkil wrote:Sorry for the delay Cat - you next post should be fine


Thank you Martin, I'll keep posting
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:57 am

Wednesday 14 November 2018

12:20 Fairy Thecraicisninety 100%
12:20 Fairy Moonball 100%
12:50 Fairy Lord In Red 100%
13:25 Fairy Thekingofconnemara 100%
13:25 Fairy Night Sir 100%
13:55 Fairy Batts Rock 125%
14:30 Fairy Monbeg Worldwide 143%
15:35 Fairy Cant Be Done 120%


Stats to date:

Days 1
Win 2
BETS 2
SR% 50.00%
ROI% 41.55%
PL +1.66
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
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Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:42 am

Thursday 15 November 2018 - (Selections 11 Races 6)

TIME COURSE HORSE
12:50 Clon Salty Boy 195.52%
13:25 Clon Bridge Native 100.00%
13:55 Clon Small World 118.63%
14:30 Clon Chambord Du Lys 121.16%
14:30 Clon Capital Force 100.00%
15:00 Clon Kemboy 100.00%
15:00 Clon A Toi Phil 111.07%
15:00 Clon Rashaan 86.96%
15:35 Clon Camelia De Cotte 130.90%
15:35 Clon Dinaria Des Obeaux 98.84%
15:35 Clon Youcantcallherthat 100.00%


The 15:00 looks very competitive, hence could make a case for most runners in this race, though Clonmel looks quite competitive throughout the card today, so looks a challenge to to make the selections

One other stands out for me, though I'll not include this in the stats

13:55 Clon Time For Mabel

Stats
Days 2
Win 3
Bets 12
SR% 25.00%
ROI% -2.15%
Profit -0.26
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
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Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:50 pm

Friday 16 November 2018

21:00 Dund Wavepoint

Only one selection tonight

Stats

Days 3
Win 6
Bets 23
SR% 26.09%
AWO 3.64
ROI% -9.79%
Profit -2.25

I have included Average Winning Odds - AWO - as ways to relate this to the SR%, at the moment the AWO is not high enough to get this in to profit, so either the AWO needs to increase or the SR%, though 26.09% is quite respectable if the AWO can increase
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:20 am

Saturday 17 November 2018

12:35 Punch Ben Dundee 100.00%
12:35 Punch Mall Dini 125.71%
12:35 Punch Scoir Mear 97.14%
14:55 Punch Paris Texas 100.00%
14:55 Punch A Place Apart 94.74%
14:55 Punch Due Reward 100.00%

Days 4
Win 6
Bets 24
SR% 25.00%
AWO 3.64
ROI% -13.55%
Profit -3.25
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:43 am

Sunday 18 November 2018

12:05 Punch Hurricane Darwin 101.46%
12:15 Cork Bantiss Jack 103.68%
12:35 Punch Jetez 107.78%
12:45 Cork Laverteen 107.36%
13:05 Punch Cecil Corbett 108.45%
13:20 Cork All The Chimneys 101.72%
13:40 Punch Nick Lost 126.07%
13:55 Cork Damut 101.58%
14:15 Punch Wicklow Brave 103.13%
14:30 Cork Definite Income 103.57%
14:50 Punch Los Alamos 114.03%
15:05 Cork Blast Of Koeman 102.67%
15:20 Punch Gigiplan Two Seven 113.72%
15:40 Cork Macs Legend 124.51%
15:55 Punch Mt Leinster 105.01%

Days 5
Win 7
Bets 30
SR% 23.33%
AWO 4.00
ROI% -11.40%
Profit -3.42
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Wed Nov 21, 2018 9:55 am

Wednesday 21 November 2018

17:30 Dundalk Hasselnott 150%
18:00 Dundalk Dream Sleep 150%
19:00 Dundalk Modern Love 100%
19:30 Dundalk Ar Saoirse 100%
20:00 Dundalk Brave Display 150%

These are the early declarations, in the event of any NR's at 11 AM I'll aim to update the selections

Stats
Days 6
Win 8
Bets 45
SR% 17.78%
AWO 4.12
ROI% -30.38%
Profit -13.67

AWO has increased slightly but SR% decreased, hence PL still negative, Longest Loosing Run (LLR) so far is 11, I have tweaked the selection criteria slightly so will see how this performs
Catspajamas

gpnt
Posts: 232
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2015 9:54 pm

Re: BWCIRE

Postby gpnt » Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:15 am

These all look great selections if you ever use SpeedRatings.com then you may want to look at dundalk it is a free service on Wednesdays only.
What filters do use use for dundalk I use nassandnavan but could use some advice on other Irish courses


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