BWCIRE

It appears that some posters want to put selections up without any reasoning. This is the forum where they can be posted. "Selection only" post found elsewhere will be deleted
Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:45 am

Sunday 2 December 2018 - Update

I have spent some more time on the cards this morning and updated my list of selections for today*

(86.84%) 12:35 Fairy Lever Du Soleil
(100.00%) 12:35 Fairy Chief Justice
(110.53%) 13:05 Fairy Quick Grabim
(89.47%) 13:05 Fairy Triplicate
(115.79%) 13:35 Fairy Cadmium
(100.00%) 13:35 Fairy Le Richebourg
(119.35%) 14:10 Fairy Out Sam
(100.00%) 14:40 Fairy Apples Jade
(100.00%) 14:40 Fairy Limini
(86.96%) 14:40 Fairy Shaneshill
(109.52%) 15:10 Fairy Jezki
(90.48%) 15:10 Fairy Wonder Laish

*Chance of winning in brackets expressed as %, with anything over 100% showing the margin of chance above the rest of the field
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:59 pm

Thursday 6 December 2018

(92.31%) 12:40 Clon Howluckycanwebe
(115.38%) 12:40 Clon Analyse That
(116.67%) 14:20 Clon Dundeedy Lad
(100.00%) 14:50 Clon Lettermacaward

Some decrement prices there, in the 12:40 preference goes to Analyse That if running after a break and can repeat Clonmel form, Howluckycanwebe has a little place form and a bit of longshot, Dundeedy Lad another longshot but is a course winner, and Lettermacaward a veteran course winner

Stats
Days 16
Win 15
Bets 76
SR% 19.74%
AWO 4.38
ASD 4.75
ROI% -17.86%
Profit -13.58

I decided might be interesting to produce the stats for the day's bets, here are the stats for Sunday 2 December

Win 4
Bets 12
SR% 33%
AWO 3.90
ASD
ROI% 30.07%
Profit +3.61

Sunday provided a good days betting and was profitable by +3.61 points after 5% Commission, reducing the overall loss somewhat
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:21 am

Friday 7 December 2018

17:30 Dund Polly Douglas
20:00 Dund Ancient Sands


Stats
Days 17
Win 15
Bets 80
SR% 18.75%
AWO 4.38
ASD 4.71
ROI% -21.97%
Profit -17.58

And for Wednesday's Bets
Day 06/12/2018
Win 0
Bets 4
SR% 0%
AWO
ASD
ROI% -100.00%
Profit -4.00
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:32 am

Saturday 8 December 2018

94.12% 13:05 Navan Wee Small Hours
105.88% 13:05 Navan Redclue
100.00% 13:35 Navan Hardline
108.33% 14:10 Navan Gun Digger
129.41% 14:45 Navan Goose Man

Overall Stats
Days 18
Win 15
Bets 82
SR% 18.29%
AWO 4.38
ASD 4.56
ROI% -23.87%
Profit -19.58

Stats for 7 December 2018
Day 07/12/2018
Win 0
Bets 2
SR% 0%
AWO
ASD
ROI% -100.00%
Profit -2.00
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:40 am

Sunday 9 December 2018

12:55 Punch Tornado Flyer
13:10 Cork Robin De Carlow
13:25 Punch Force Of Forces
13:45 Cork Great Field
13:45 Cork Castlegrace Paddy
14:00 Punch Min
14:15 Cork Oh Me Oh My
14:30 Punch Getabird
14:50 Cork Chatham Street Lad
14:50 Cork Pound A Stroke
15:05 Punch Flynsini


Stats
Days 19
Win 16
Bets 87
SR% 18.39%
AWO 4.24
ASD 4.58
ROI% -25.93%
Profit -22.56

Stats for 08/12/2018
Day 08/12/2018
Win 1
Bets 5
SR% 20%
AWO 2.01
ASD
ROI% -59.72%
Profit -2.99
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:32 am

Thursday 13 December 2018

14:35 Tram Rebel Turn
15:10 Tram Seskin Flyer

Stats
Days 20
Win 21
Bets 98
SR% 21.43%
AWO 4.10
ASD 4.90
ROI% -16.60%
Profit -16.27

1 Day Stats
Day 09/12/2018
Win 5
Bets 11
SR% 45%
AWO 3.46
ASD
ROI% +57.18%
Profit +6.29

Sunday proved a very good day with an exceptional 45% SR producing a profit on the day of 6.29 points after deducting 5% commission, this helped to reduce the overall loss of the approach so far to -16.27 points, still a way to go yet to this into the green
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:23 am

Friday 14 December 2018

18:00 Dund Sheisdiesel
18:30 Dund Joza
18:30 Dund Vhagar
18:30 Dund Beau Warrior
19:30 Dund Alfredo Arcano
20:00 Dund Billyfairplay
20:30 Dund Tyrconnell
20:30 Dund Jack Nevison
21:00 Dund Lady De Vesci
21:00 Dund Every Breath

Stats
Days 21
Win 21
Bets 100
SR% 21.00%
AWO 4.10
ASD 4.76
ROI% -18.27%
Profit -18.27

1 Day Stats
Day 13/12/2018
Win 0
Bets 2
SR% 0%
AWO
ASD
ROI% -100.00%
Profit -2.00

Some really good racing predications appearing in the threads over last few days, with some good odds I can see, however, this thread is yet to secure an overall profit, I'll aim to keep posting as too early to assess how this 'system' is performing as requires a few months to judge if any good or not, as it is too early to say, after only 21 days of betting, requires at least 90 days, any system/approach can produce winners, and it is all too easy to be 'dazzled' with big price winners only to find that over time the overall approach produces a negative PL, or put off by a losing run, I have succumbed to both these betting 'pitfalls' in the past and all too easy to give up on a 'system' that is showing a loss before it has a chance to show if it is one to follow, so I'll keep posting and monitoring, I have read much on betting and one thing I have read many times is the need to record bets in order to determine if an approach has any merit, plus to review the previous days bets against the criteria being used to determine if any theme(s) are emerging so that an approach can be further streamlined in order to reduce the loosing runs, with any approach though the market often catches up over time and the value goes, hence an approach/system has to be dynamic and evolve over time in an attempt to stay one step or more ahead of the market

Back to the approach, looking at the ASD of around 5, with the LLR (longest loosing run) of 16 to date and betting to 1 point, a 100 point bank seems reasonable to test out this approach, therefore current bank stands at +81.73 points, I'll add the Bank value to the overall stats from tomorrow

Have a good day's betting
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:08 am

Saturday 15 December 2018

12:05 Fairy Campeador
12:05 Fairy Roaring Bull
12:40 Fairy Capture The Drama
12:40 Fairy Poormans Hill
12:40 Fairy Dinnies Vinnie
13:15 Fairy Lethal Steps
13:15 Fairy Sicario
13:15 Fairy Carols Return
13:50 Fairy Dos Gardenias
13:50 Fairy Dunvegan
13:50 Fairy Column Of Fire
14:25 Fairy Sir Raston
14:25 Fairy Empire Burleque
14:25 Fairy Trans Wood
15:00 Fairy Goodnightngodbless
15:00 Fairy Brosna George
15:00 Fairy Mystic Embarr
15:35 Fairy Gotthenod
15:35 Fairy Whatucallher

Stats
Days 22
Win 25
Bets 110
SR% 22.73%
AWO 4.16
ASD 5.00
ROI% -10.21%
Profit -11.23
LLR 17
Bank 88.77

1 day Stats
Day 14/12/2018
Win 4
Bets 10
SR% 40%
AWO 4.26
ASD
ROI% +70.43%
Profit +7.04

Thursday proved a very good day for the Patternform number crunching with a 40% SR and a PL on the day of +7.04 points, reducing the overall PL losses to -11.23 points after 5% commission deduction, I have also worked out a formula for my spreadsheet to calculate the Longest Loosing Run (LLR) and have added this to the stats, so far the LLR is 17, which is worth bearing in mind when managing losses and the bank which stand at 88.77 points after 22 days of bets

Fairyhouse has some big fields today hence the multiple selections in each race, I am still doing this to 1 pint per bet and not dutching them
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:21 pm

Sunday 16 December 2018

12:30 Navan Defi Bleu
12:30 Navan Easy Game
13:00 Navan Ball Darc
13:00 Navan Walk To Freedom
13:00 Navan Dromore Lad
14:05 Navan Aasleagh Dawn
14:05 Navan Monotype
14:35 Navan Uaintseenothingyet
14:35 Navan The Trigger

Todays bets, stats update shortly
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:44 pm

Stats Update

Days 23
Win 28
Bets 129
SR% 21.71%
AWO 4.25
ASD 5.61
ROI% -12.33%
Profit -15.90
LLR 17
Bank 84.10

1 Days Stats
Day 15/12/2018
Win 3
Bets 19
SR% 16%
AWO 4.78
ASD
ROI% -24.60%
Profit -4.67

I have reviewed the approach and noticed a few trends in the numbers so have focussed more on these for the selections today and will keep this slightly 'tighter' approach for the next few weeks to see how if effects the bottom line, reviewing the previous 23 days with the trends layered over the old approach I obtained the following stats

Bets = 73
Win = 16
SR = 21%
AWO = 6.21
LLR = 10
PL = +10 Points

This reduced the number of bets and the LLR became much improved which reduced the Bank Drawdown, +10 points profit is quite modest, a profit nonetheless, I'll post the selections based on the updated approach and continue to monitor
Catspajamas


Return to “Selections Only”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 21 guests