BWCIRE

It appears that some posters want to put selections up without any reasoning. This is the forum where they can be posted. "Selection only" post found elsewhere will be deleted
Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Wed Nov 21, 2018 5:51 pm

gpnt wrote:These all look great selections if you ever use SpeedRatings.com then you may want to look at dundalk it is a free service on Wednesdays only.
What filters do use use for dundalk I use nassandnavan but could use some advice on other Irish courses


Thanks for that gpnt, I mostly use place statistics from patternform and then trainer stats in order to narrow on the selections, I find the win stats are very 'volatile' and have not yet found any speed ratings for IRE that seem to work for me, I know of the site you mention, but have not registered, so might be worth a look to add some speed data to the approach, the current speed stats I have I find not so useful for IRE, I have just registered so will take a look around the site you mention
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Thu Nov 22, 2018 8:44 am

Thursday 22 November 2018

12:35 Thurles Mrs Lovett 150%
15:10 Thurles Lleyton 100%

Stats
Days 7
Win 8
Bets 50
SR% 16.00%
AWO 4.12
ROI% -37.34%
Profit -18.67
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Thu Nov 22, 2018 11:28 pm

Friday 23 November 2018

19:00 Dundalk Tallien 140.00%
20:30 Dundalk La Novia 150.00%

Stats*
Days 8
Win 9
Bets 52
SR% 17.31%
AWO 3.83
ROI% -37.01%
Profit -19.24

*Profit is based on BSP (incl. 5% com), and 1 point per bet

Following on from gntp advice, I have looked at some speed ratings and have now included these in refining selections, main source of data still remains patternform
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Fri Nov 23, 2018 10:11 pm

Saturday 24 November 2018

14:20 Gowran Park Wishmoor 125.00%
15:30 Gowran Park Shrewdoperator 100.00%

Stats
Days 9
Win 10
Bets 54
SR% 18.52%
AWO 4.13
ROI% -27.38%
Profit -14.78
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Sun Nov 25, 2018 10:09 am

Sunday 25 November 2018

13:00 Navan Dinons 100.00%
13:00 Navan Easy Game 100.00%

Stats
Days 10
Win 10
Bets 56
SR% 17.86%
AWO 4.13
ASD 5.60
ROI% -29.97%
Profit -16.78


I have now included Average Selections Per Day (ASD), though this is now lower due to tighter selection criteria, the 13:00 at Navan looks very competitive and I cannot rule out First Approach, or in fact a few of the bigger price runners, however I have gone with the ratings, and will stick with these and monitor the performance over the next few weeks
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:22 pm

Wednesday 28 November 2018

14:30 Punch Kildorrery 102.50%

Stats
Days 11
Win 11
Bets 58
SR% 18.97%
AWO 4.48
ASD 5.27
ROI% -19.28%
Profit -11.18

Easy Game was a nice a easy win on Sunday, I followed the Patternform numbers and it paid this time at 8 points, improving the AWO

Wednesday proves just as tricky at Punchestown and the numbers have highlighted Kildorrery, I thought it might interesting if I also put up my ranking for this 8 runner race, these are based on data from Patternform

Kildorrery 1
Judgement Day 2
Quamino 3
Poli Roi 4
Tara Mia 5
Alletrix 6
Shady Operator 7
Uisce Beatha 7

Another competitive affair with plenty with chances, Judgement Day ranks a very close 2nd rank, however I have gone with the top one for the records
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:55 pm

Thursday 29 November 2018

12:50 Thurl Grey Mountain Mist 111.76%

Again a few with chances and cannot rule out Fairymount Boy, I have gone with the numbers and Grey Mountain Mist is ranked top and is 6 points ahead of Fairymount Boy based on my scoring approach, others I noted were Barna Venture and Seskin Flyer, Grey Mountain Mist is currently 9/1 or thereabouts, which seems to offer a value bet and take on Fairymount Boy and the other contenders

Here is my ranking for this race

Grey Mountain Mist 1
Fairymount Boy 2
Barna Venture 3
Seskin Flyer 3
Templemichael 5
Coole Craft 6
Kilderry Prince 7
Well Joey 8
Unas Pleasure 9
Redwood Boy 9
Burning Issues 11
Perfect Leader 12


I could not find anything else I wanted to take on in the other races at Thurles, either prices too short or races too close to call on the numbers

Stats
Days 12
Win 11
Bets 59
SR% 18.64%
AWO 4.48
ASD 4.92
ROI% -20.65%
Profit -12.18

Today Kildorrery ran a good race in second, proved better than most of the rest but not quite good enough today to get on term with the eventual winner being only 1 point head in the scoring on the winner, would have been a nice place win, but I am only recording 1st place wins
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:31 pm

Friday 30 November 2018

(135.71%) 17:30 Dund Calling Time
(102.94%) 20:00 Dund Ahundrednotout
(102.70%) 20:30 Dund Dawn Trouper

All three selections come at Dundalk, there are a few worth a look at Limerick, so may look at these later, for now I have put these from Dundalk up

Stats
Days 13
Win 11
Bets 60
SR% 18.33%
AWO 4.48
ASD 4.62
ROI% -21.97%
Profit -13.18

Barna Venture was third ranked and won the 12:50 at Thurles, with Grey Mountain Mist being Brought Down (BD), following a mistake, so hard to judge the performance of this selection in any event was correct to oppose the favourite and with Seskin Flyer following up in third my approach may have some merit, so I'll keep plugin away and see if I can nudge the PL into the green

Additionally here are the full rankings for the three races based on my approach

17:30 Dund Calling Time 1
17:30 Dund Kings Vow 2
17:30 Dund Finding Nero 3
17:30 Dund Joza 4
17:30 Dund Duhallow Noelie 4
17:30 Dund Dreamboat Dave 4
17:30 Dund Esprit de Lumiere 4
17:30 Dund Ifyouhaveaminute 4
17:30 Dund Dash To Celebrate 4
17:30 Dund Guiding 4
17:30 Dund Early Strike 4
17:30 Dund Keep Planning 4
17:30 Dund Bellepower 4
17:30 Dund The Next Abbey 4
17:30 Dund Macken 4
17:30 Dund Me Well 4

20:00 Dund Ahundrednotout 1
20:00 Dund Clare Island 2
20:00 Dund Alfredo Arcano 3
20:00 Dund Geological 4
20:00 Dund Kasbah 5
20:00 Dund Dash Dor 5
20:00 Dund Lilys Prince 5
20:00 Dund Smart Stinger 5
20:00 Dund Confrontational 9
20:00 Dund Ducky Mallon 10
20:00 Dund Joules 10
20:00 Dund Hee Haw 12

20:30 Dund Dawn Trouper 1
20:30 Dund Ancient Sands 2
20:30 Dund Tooreen Legend 3
20:30 Dund Commander Won 4
20:30 Dund Touch Of Gold 4
20:30 Dund Schoolboy Error 6
20:30 Dund Kerosin 7
20:30 Dund Archers Up 7
20:30 Dund Chelkar 9
20:30 Dund Too Precious 9
20:30 Dund Here For The Craic 11
20:30 Dund Perfect Tapatino 12
20:30 Dund Hall Of Fame 13
20:30 Dund See Of Rome 13
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:41 pm

Saturday 1 December 2018

(113.51%) 13:25 Fairy Nearly Namad

Full ranking for the 13:25 at Fairyhouse

Nearly Namad 1
Mallowney 2
Blast Of Koeman 3
All The Answers 4
Balbir Du Mathan 4
Arvico Bleu 6
Duca De Thaix 7
Colms Dream 7
Leap Dearg 9
Runyon Rattler 10
Stowaway Forever 11

Lots of question marks over most of these runners, so I go with Nearly Nama'd with a chance to bounce back if running to best form with switch back to Chase from Hurdle, Duca De Thaix makes a reasonable favourite with a string of seconds but yet to win a Chase, and All The Answers with every chance as co-favourite, however, with Nearly Nama'd at around 12/1 makes a value bet for me

Stats
Days 14
Win 11
Bets 63
SR% 17.46%
AWO 4.48
ASD 4.50
ROI% -25.69%
Profit -16.18
Catspajamas

Catspajamas
Posts: 418
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:47 am

Re: BWCIRE

Postby Catspajamas » Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:11 pm

Sunday 2 December 2018

(115.79%) 13:35 Fairy Cadmium
(119.35%) 14:10 Fairy Out Sam
(100.00%) 14:40 Fairy Apples Jade
(100.00%) 14:40 Fairy Limini
(109.52%) 15:10 Fairy Jezki

Looks quite a competitive card at Fairyhouse on Sunday, giving a good number of selections from the Patternform cards, should prove to be an interesting set of picks hopefully for the right reasons ;)


Stats
Days 15
Win 11
Bets 64
SR% 17.19%
AWO 4.48
ASD 4.27
ROI% -26.85%
Profit -17.18

Nearly Namad did not bounce back today, and the race played out fairly predictably with Duca De Thaix taking the race
Catspajamas


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