I just use patternform Pace ratings of 7 to 9 on a horse that has odds between 3 and 5. I then use the strategy outlined above in my reply to waccoe. In longer races if the horse does not appear to be going out and is not running to Pace, ie it is running as a front runner then I look to come out at a loss of half my initial liability. So if my liability is £10 if the horse comes in to a red of £5 liability then I take the loss. In practice you are always tempted to let the bet run and risk losing the whole amount, but your inner voice will tell you that it is going to lose!! I don't pretend that I can do this everytime but that is what I am aiming for.
Using Historical In Running prices to predict runner who may DOB today
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