13 Feb 2015

Using Historical In Running prices to predict runner who may DOB today
martinkil
Posts: 3418
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

13 Feb 2015

Postby martinkil » Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:31 am

SANDOWN 1:30 - Right Step - 17 (may drift) - WINS - went in again at 21 (backed into 15)
Has dobbed in 4 of it's 7 hurdle starts but most of those races were class 3, today is class 4 race and it won the one class 4 (novice hdl) it's contested. If we look at it's lifetime dobbing in all races it words out at 44%, but when he has a rest of at least 71 days, his dobbing line reads: 562*047. His last run was on 22 November, 83 days ago, and he drops into class 4 from class 3 and has dropped down from a rating of 113 to 107. The price is right, but historically this fellow usually drifts so it might be worth splitting stakes and waiting until near the off before backing him again.

SANDOWN 2:00 - Saroque - 11 - made too many mistakes :(
Has a strong dobbing line in chases - 1*0*12310 mostly in class 3 (today). Usually leads, so might have to contend
with The Italian Yob for the lead.


2.50 Fak - Full Ov Beans - 7.4 - Taken on for the led and never going well - fell :(
Looks a bit of a Fakenham specialist. Has won three of it's last four races so is in rude form. His Fakenham formline reads: 1211U1U112 all of them chases and the penultimate one, a win, in class 3. It's DOBBING line at Fakenham reads: *1**1*0**1 - the 0 was where he unseated at the first. He has unseated here before so that is a worry. It's last race was over 3m and he looked the winner for much of the race but the distance proved too much. Steps back to 2m5f110y today. Has won on good to heavy. In it's last three Fakenham starts in class 3 chases it's drifted before the off - so it's may well be available at greater than 7.4 before the off
Last edited by martinkil on Fri Feb 13, 2015 2:57 pm, edited 4 times in total.

philipg
Posts: 135
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:03 pm

Re: 13 Feb 2015

Postby philipg » Fri Feb 13, 2015 12:28 pm

I shortlisted this one it does sort of jump out the page at you. I also liked Benevolent in the same race. Did you fancy any for Sandown Martin? I rather fancied ON TREND in the 2nd race he is a cracking jumper and generous when pressure is applied. He has some super dobbing digits, most of them are in better class.


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