19 Jan 2015

Using Historical In Running prices to predict runner who may DOB today
martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

19 Jan 2015

Postby martinkil » Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:16 am

EXETER 2:20 - Red Admirable - 8.2
Has dobbed in all three chases winning the second. Lto finished unplaced, but dobbed (4.0 from 10.0) in class 2 NovHcCh. Still learning and makes mistakes, but progressive over fences and should DOB again.

EXETER 3:50 - Aroseforoscar - 30
Doesn't have a very high overall Dobbing rate but seems to have found it feet on it's last three start Dobbing
in each - and they were all here at Exeter. Had previously run twice before at Exeter, Dobbing on it's second ever start
then falling when close up. Is a nice price for an overlooked runner.
Last edited by martinkil on Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.

philipg
Posts: 135
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:03 pm

Re: 19 Feb 2015

Postby philipg » Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:00 pm

Good Morning Martin. I just went on to post what I thought was the best of the day and it was Red Admirable. I do hope I have not put the hex on this. Surely if this was trained by one of the big trainers it would almost certainly be half these odds. The Bangor run is rock solid. Then the Haydock run was pretty good. He was only 12 lengths behind Firebird Flyer who has since gone on and won a good amateurs race @ Ludlow.
I do hope I have not put the mockers on this, but I do like it when I find the same horse as yourself.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 19 Feb 2015

Postby martinkil » Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:19 pm

Morning Philip

You must know by now that I'm more than capable of putting the mockers on my selections without any external help!!! But yes - up in class last time yet it managed to DOB

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 19 Feb 2015

Postby martinkil » Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:50 pm

Someone pushed - Red Admirable - out to 11/12 - so I helped myself - back too 9.6 - still looks good

philipg
Posts: 135
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:03 pm

Re: 19 Feb 2015

Postby philipg » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:08 pm

Just had a little more on @ 11.5. That is a very workable price.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 19 Feb 2015

Postby martinkil » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:15 pm

Some interesting price on - Red Admirable - in it's 3 chases.
1 - 5 runners field was 3rd fav bfsp 6.2 4 of 5)
2 - 8 runners - really drifted 21 > 60 > 50 - won
3 - 8 run - much better race 12 > 8 > 9. - 4.0 InPlay 5th

So it can drift and win

philipg
Posts: 135
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:03 pm

Re: 19 Feb 2015

Postby philipg » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:19 pm

I feel I have had too much on this now. I have just gone in again @ 13s. Fingers crossed.

philipg
Posts: 135
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:03 pm

Re: 19 Feb 2015

Postby philipg » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:32 pm

I did have too much on!!. I think this race will really work out well.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 19 Feb 2015

Postby martinkil » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:32 pm

My fingers are well and truly singed :( .... was never really going

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 19 Feb 2015

Postby martinkil » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:53 pm

- Aroseforoscar - rule 4 has taken my price down to 26 - has been heavily backed and is now 10.0


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