B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Using Historical In Running prices to predict runner who may DOB today
jimonline
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:51 pm

B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Postby jimonline » Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:30 am

Hi,

Relatively new to the world of trading, any help would be more than appreciated.
I've been looking into B2L strategies and the best way to achieve best results.

I've been using info from the dobbing section to see which have traded low from BSP over time as well as dobbin day and other sources but finding it extremely hard to find any consistency.

I've looked in to backing at BSP then hedging at fixed % drop inplay as well as taking in play and using the software to manually green out when I believe the horse has hit its peak in running and can go no lower.

I've been using Geekstoy as well as dobbin day software but is taking some getting used to.

So basically if anyone can advice on;
- Best software to use. Or use betfair interface?
- Best live stream if any, or just to use betfair stream which is delayed?
- Best method in which to find front runners, horses that run well, where to start?
- What strategy works well, i.e taking BSP or simply taking in running for all selections?
- Which % to hedge out at. So ex taking 10.0 bsp is it best to aim for 50% hedges so laying at 5.0 or smaller drops?
- Do you suggest any L2B strategies or is B2L the best route to go?

AOTA + anything further


All help and advice would be more than appreciated,
Many Thanks

Steve
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:20 pm

Re: B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Postby Steve » Mon Apr 20, 2015 1:37 pm

Good Afternoon Jimonline...

Just a reply for you from a full time trader, although I primarily back or lay in running in addition to taking a position on one horse pre-race and 90% NH only, but I can advise re software and a couple of other points.

Geeks Toy is as good as any, set it up to show you the hedged profit / loss in the far column next to each runner and it's all one click easy to use software.

I find the Betfair stream generally ok, although some ATR tracks are delayed too much. You will always be behind the track players / SIS merchants, but if you are trading back to lay at the start of the race, then you will be ok with Betfair video. Not sure how RUK online is now in terms of delays?

Re pace of a race and where to find front runners etc, well Martin has a pace section on this website, so sure he can help you with that if required. You can also buy it from Timeform (google Timeform in play) OR the most laborious of which, is make your own horse notes...see the PS below.

Re where to hedge at, well there are no hard and fast rules, you have to be the judge of that and by what you see unfolding. If a fancied horse has had a soft lead and is 20 clear with 2 to jump, I would not be in any rush to bail out, but then I like to maximise my returns where possible...although always now hedge out at 1.03-1.04 if clear with one to jump as a last fence faller is a huge kick in the goolies when you are in for loads !!!!!!! It will take me 3 months to recoup what I lost on Annie Power at Cheltenham......ouch.

My major advice, is get the psychology / mindset / discipline right, honestly if you have a gambling mentality (like I did) and cannot accept a loss you will never make a success of it. I have lost 4 figure sums on loads of occasions when I have gone on tilt not being able to accept a relatively small red. I still struggle with it now (Saturday I laid 3 winners on the trot and felt the red mist descending, so had to leave my desk for deep breaths!!), but to any aspiring trader I would say start with the mindset (there are some great books out there) and take it from there.

Good luck to you.

Best Wishes
Steve

P.S If you send me a private message, I am friends with another full time trader who has a blog who will help you, as he trades as you are looking to do. Lovely chap he is, really helpful and all for no cost. He does put in a LOT of time watching replays (and I mean hours), making notes of horses running styles and it is what gives him his edge...time consuming but works for him very well, as you will see by the daily results on his blog.


jimonline wrote:Hi,

Relatively new to the world of trading, any help would be more than appreciated.
I've been looking into B2L strategies and the best way to achieve best results.

I've been using info from the dobbing section to see which have traded low from BSP over time as well as dobbin day and other sources but finding it extremely hard to find any consistency.

I've looked in to backing at BSP then hedging at fixed % drop inplay as well as taking in play and using the software to manually green out when I believe the horse has hit its peak in running and can go no lower.

I've been using Geekstoy as well as dobbin day software but is taking some getting used to.

So basically if anyone can advice on;
- Best software to use. Or use betfair interface?
- Best live stream if any, or just to use betfair stream which is delayed?
- Best method in which to find front runners, horses that run well, where to start?
- What strategy works well, i.e taking BSP or simply taking in running for all selections?
- Which % to hedge out at. So ex taking 10.0 bsp is it best to aim for 50% hedges so laying at 5.0 or smaller drops?
- Do you suggest any L2B strategies or is B2L the best route to go?

AOTA + anything further


All help and advice would be more than appreciated,
Many Thanks

jimonline
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:51 pm

Re: B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Postby jimonline » Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:41 pm

Hi Steve,
Thanks for your reply!
Yup got GT set up as suggested
Not sure on RUK either, been using bf live steam but find it a tad annoying with the delay. But don't see much of a way round it.

Can't seem to find the pace section on here? Staring at numbers all day has twisted my head I think.
Is the timeform pace data similar do you know?
I think making notes could take a ridiculous amount if time, and probably gain similar results to looking at info readily available. I wouldn't know where to start...

Agree with you on the horse clear point, it happens too frequently to not at least get rid of most if your Back liability, before it decides to bail :(

Mentality wise, ironically I'm ok in this area, taking hits doesn't affect me too much, I used to play a lot of poker so fair use to upswing/downswing and variance.
I can accept its part and parcel.

Yeh I'll drop you a PM thank again pal!

James

Steve
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:20 pm

Re: B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Postby Steve » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:37 pm

Hi James,

No problem at all. I see Martin has answered you re the Pace section on his excellent website!

Take it easy and happy trading.
Cheers
Steve

jimonline
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:51 pm

Re: B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Postby jimonline » Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:01 pm

Cheers Steve, thanks for your help!

James

jasben
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:38 pm

Re: B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Postby jasben » Tue May 19, 2015 4:30 pm

hi jimonline.i wonder would it be possible to have a read of your friends blog on trading to see could i educate myself thanks in advance jasben

jasben
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:38 pm

Re: B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Postby jasben » Tue May 19, 2015 5:47 pm

hi all,sorry about the earlier message it was for steve i suppose if either could help or point me in the right direction thanks and sorry again jasben.

jimonline
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:51 pm

Re: B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Postby jimonline » Tue May 19, 2015 6:32 pm

http://200kin1yearbetfairtrading.blogspot.co.uk/

Dave has been very helpful although I'm still struggling with finding selections and implementing the best strategy to use.

James

jasben
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:38 pm

Re: B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Postby jasben » Fri May 29, 2015 8:29 am

thanks very much for that blog i will have a read later thanks for your help jasben

jimonline
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:51 pm

Re: B2L- Front Runners/Challengers- Help Please!

Postby jimonline » Sat May 30, 2015 3:06 pm

No problem. How have you been getting on. Any further luck with all.


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