By Martin Kilgariff on Saturday, 7 December 2013 at 11:06
12:50 Sand - Alder Mairi - 28.0 (6+ place)
I was very tempted to select - Mrs Peachey - for the winsince it finished 2nd in a hot races where last weeks winning selection - AS IAM - finished 3rd and has produced a host of good winners since. But she ispriced about right at the front of the market and the selection may have beensomewhat overlooked.
Her best race to date was when three lengths third to DOYLYCARTE at Cheltenham last April in a listed Mares Hurdle, the first threepulling 14 lengths clear of the 4th. The winner was beaten 9l on her return atWetherby in November behind the 141 rated winner. She was raised 6lb for thatrun and finished 2nd on her next start.
The Nicky Henderson trained second MA FILLEULE (5/4F) ransecond to the improved Highland Retreat and has been raised 8lb for that run.So her two conquers have been raised from 127 to 140 and 134 to 142.
Alder Mairi has gone from 121 to 127 so may well have alittle in hand. She may have needed the run last time on her seasonal debut,when having led, quickened with the first two on the home bend but was unableto sustain the effort and was allowed to coast home in 4th.
She's has a tendency to jump right, so a return to a RHcourse should help and she's the only natural front runner in the race so maybe allowed an uncontested lead.
If nothing else she has every chance of trading sub 10inPlay, if not lower, and the 6+ in the place market is also rather attractive.
Martin Kilgariff DObbed this one in both the Win and Place market
[b]12.20 Newb - As I Am - 8.6
By Martin Kilgariff on Saturday, 30 November 2013 at 11:20[/b]
I'm at a loss to understand why the selection is such a big price in this listed Mares hurdle. Won a string of novice hurdles during the summer and won on it's Hcap debut. Then went of to contest a class 2 - 15K HcapHdl earlier this month finishing a good third from a rating of 132.
The race is really working out well.
The winner Highland Retreat went on to win a listed mares race on her next start.
The 2nd is yet to race.
The 4th, Utopie Des Bordes ran 2nd on it's next start in a grade 3 HcapHdl
off a rating of 136.
The 5th - Mickie - won an 8k Hcap hdl yesterday at Newbury.
The selection showed great battling qualities last time and the fav will need to improve on what it's achieved to date to beat our one, so a DOB is surely a formality with a strong possibility of a win.
Martin Kilgariff Backed at 8.6 - stake back at 3.1 and some "Just in case" money at 1.2 ...
30 November 2013 at 12:45 · Like · 1
1.20 Newb - Hectors Choice - 18
By Martin Kilgariff on Saturday, 30 November 2013 at 10:28
1.20 Newb - Hectors Choice - 18
Selecting a runner who hasn't dobbed in it's last three starts could be seen as risky, and probably is, but prior to those three starts our intrepid hero had dobbed in 12 of it's 14 chase's. He had a fine 2011/2012 season raising from 124 to 146 and contesting the top staying handicap chases. Finished second in the 56k Racing Post trophy in 2012. Was forced to contest the best handicaps last season from a rating in the mid 140's. Ran really well, having every chance when turning for home in the 2013 running of the 56K Racing Post trophy trading down to 6.2 from 51. The handicapper has dropped him down to 134, and this is the first time he's run against this class of opposition (135 and lower) since winning off 132 in Oct 2011. He's a bit of a grinder so don't worry too much when he first comes under pressure since he usually rallies for at least the couple of fences, and often much further.
** only managed a low of 10
4.50 Aintree - Act Of Kalanisi - 26.0
By Martin Kilgariff on Friday, 13 April 2012 at 11:28
One approach I take to Class 1 Hcap Hurdle is to look for form over the last two years in previous events of the same class and then sort on DOB% and DOBval. This gives you runners who are capable of DOBBING in these type of events. The ones that pop up I usually investigate further especially the ones at nice prices.
Act Of Kalanisi was an average sort of handicapper on the flat over middle distances. Switched to hurdles and won his novice well enough. Upped in grade and was outclassed in Grade 1 novices, but won when switched to Handicaps. Ran really well in the Ladbroke and the Lanzarote this season trading 5 from 19 and 7 from 14. It's last race was the hugely competitive Coral Cup where he traded down to 7.6 from 16.28 having moved into 4th at the top of the will but faded up the straight.
He's currently 26.0 and from that price a DOB should be alomst a forgone conclusion and a more ambitious lay at sub 10.0 should be achievable, and who knows maybe he'll surprise us all.
.
Martin Kilgariff: Drifted out to 30.0 and I managed to get out at 12.0 ... but no green - looking for BIG green at 8.0 ... ah well
By Martin Kilgariff on Monday, 9 April 2012 at 13:59
4.50 - Irish National Fairyhouse – Leanne – 70.0+
The 10yo mare will almost certainly be outclassed in this top class staying chase, but the rains have come in time and we’re likely to have soft going (GS currently) for this afternoons racing. She’s also in the form of her life winning her last two races in small fields over shorter, staying on well. Ran in this race two years ago when trading down to 6.0 from 29.0 but is 10lb higher today. She’s DOBBED in 11 of her last 12 chases so is consistent, although most of those were at 2m4f. She showed she stays at least 3m in a big field top class race when under 4 length 5th in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown over Christmas with today’s pilot on top. Made the running that day but is versatile. Her rider won yesterday on Satu (claims 5lb) so will be full of confidence
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Martin Kilgariff Plodded on to finish 5th but never threatened and it's inplay price reflected that
10 April 2012 at 22:18 ·
ASCOT 1:00 - Vino Griego
By Martin Kilgariff on Saturday, 21 January 2012 at 11:56
ASCOT 1:00 - Vino Griego
Hasn't run that well in novice or beginner chases, but he has been up against the likes of Time For Rupert and Grands Crus, but when we look at Handicap Chases a different picture emerges.
In the six handicap chases he contested he DOBBED in 5 of them with InPlay lows of 3.0, 3.0, 1.67, 1.3 and 1.08. He failed to DOB when unseating at Newbury and he is prone to the odd mistake which makes life "interesting". He's not for the faint hearted, but showed at Ascot in December that even when making minor errors early he absolutely tanked into a listed (class 1) HCAP chase, taking the lead after 10 fences galloping strongly and was 5l clear coming into the straight trading down to 1.3 but hit the second last very hard and was passed by the Fav The Minack before the last. That was over 3m but he travels so strongly in his races that the step back to 2m3f shouldn't be a problem especially in the class 3 HCAP chase
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Martin Kilgariff Down to 2.52 before hitting a fence really hard
3.10 Muss - Tara Royal – 15.0
By Martin Kilgariff on Saturday, 11 February 2012 at 10:20
3.10 Muss - Tara Royal – 15.0
When I last selected this fellow on 14th Jan I wrote
"To be quite honest I was expecting this 7yo gelding to be between 4.0 and 6.0 on the exchanges since it's never started higher than 6.4 in it's previous chases and that was a grade 2 "Rising Starts" novice chase at Wincanton, but 8.0+ is a gift."
- and he promptly drifted out to a BFsp of 20.0 !!!, but did trade down to 2.6 InPlay …. so I was very happy.
At this sort of distance 2m/2m1f, Tara Royal has a 100% DOBBING record of 6 from 6. That includes three class 2 chases and three class 3 chases (today’s class). Managed to DOB last time in what was effectively a 0-150 25k chase at Doncaster when trading down to 6.0 from 13.5. Steps back down to a class 3 Hcap chase today.
The one minor problem is that from it's 9 chases it's failed to complete in two (fall and unseat) and tends to make mistakes in the others. That said it's failed to DOB in just 2 of those 9 races - the Grade 2 where it was outclassed, and when it unseated at the third fence. There always risks, but from it's current price in this grade there must be every chance of a DOB and possibly much better.
Martin Kilgariff Being nicely supported - almost DOBBED already
11 February 2012 at 15:05 · Like
By Martin Kilgariff on Sunday, 17 June 2012 at 14:16
DONCASTER 3:00 - Kimberella (4.9), Two Pancakes(16.0)
Every now and then you stumble over a result that looks to be working out really well and if you get on the subsequent runners early enough you can make a pretty penny. While looking through the form of the runners in today DONCASTER 3:00 I fell over such a race - well it looks like one to me!!!.
In today's DONCASTER 3:00 the joint favourite - Kimberella - looks solid enough. Two runs, both in class 4, trading InPlay down to 4.1 from 11.5, and 1.6 from 6.0, so both DOBBED, and the winner of it's last race has finished second in a listed race since.
The other favourite Lewisham could though be too short. Ran well enough in a class 6 Maiden Auction but it's difficult to rate the race although the 5th horse did place in a class 3 maiden next time.
Newstead Abbey showed promise on debut finishing second. The winner is in the Coventry and the third won a class 5 maiden on it's next start. Made evens Fav on it's next start, class 5 maiden, but could only finish 5th although connections blamed the faster ground.
Mickstathetricksta was very slowly away on debut and ran green early. He eventually ran on but it took him a little time to quicken and he could again find things happening too fast here.
The other one that interest me here is- Two Pancakes. He ran in a class 5 Ripon maiden who's form is working out really well. The race was won by the fav Hillbilly Boy who was having his 5th start. The second was the second fav Maputo
who was on debut and has an entry for the G1 National stakes. The third, our Two Pancakes was on debut and behind early, but was doing all it's best work in the final furlong. The 4th Tha'Ir was also on debut and has since won another class 5 maiden by over 4 lengths. The 5th, Off Art was on debut and hasn't run since. The 6th, Mary's Daughter, who was a further 6l behind, was thereabouts until she weakened in the last funlong, May have needed the race because she came out next time a surprise winner at 50-1 of a class 4 maiden.
So the key race looks to be 2:10 at Ripon on 20 May, and if either Two Pancakes or Off Art win this the it's a race for the notebook
Martin Kilgariff : Two Pancakes didn't do so well but Kimberella did really well to hold on