Lay dobbing ?

Using Historical In Running prices to predict runner who may DOB today
tony10000
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:23 pm

Lay dobbing ?

Postby tony10000 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:36 am

Hi all has any one tried Laying dobs? If so what was the outcome ? I've been laying in running with a lot of success but wondered if Dobbing would aď a bit of security? (I know all of the pitfalls re Laying but would be interested in your thoughts re entry odds etc

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Lay dobbing ?

Postby martinkil » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:18 am

I presume your stake is related to your lay price ?
I suppose the price movement cards could help here.
If a previous winner tends to drift during the race when it's won, you could put in a dob price, but since most runners will lose you'll be halving you profit in many cases.

As you can see I hadn't really considered this before since I'm mainly a backer.

tony10000
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:23 pm

Re: Lay dobbing ?

Postby tony10000 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:38 pm

Hi martini,
Yes profit to come from the lay stake.
My problem is that I do not watch the race via tv, I only have the odds to judge the placing.
So I cannot enter the dob at a late stage of a race. (Unless I am certain of a drift)
I'm open to ideas as to whether it's best to just lay without a back bet (as I have been doing) or if someone knows of another strategy with less risk dobbing or not.
Thanks for reply.

mickyj25
Posts: 43
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:10 pm

Re: Lay dobbing ?

Postby mickyj25 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 3:28 pm

I use the patternform pace cards as a guide for both back and lay dobbing. Front runners are obviously backed and then layed and ones with a pace factor of 7 and above are layed then backed. I am very conservative with a lay to back bet as when they win they really bite you. I look for the second or third favourite to lay and then back it several ticks higher. I am not looking to dob as such but make a small profit per race. I look for longer races as the movement is normally greater and if it goes against you you have a good chance of getting out. A sprint over 5f can sometimes result in your lay coming in to win very quickly, you don't have a chance to back,which is why I don't use pure lay bets.

tony10000
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:23 pm

Re: Lay dobbing ?

Postby tony10000 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:07 pm

Hi Mickyj

I will look into the 7 level for Laying. (thanks for that)
Do you watch your races inplay ?
You state that you take small profits, have you ever thought or allowed the lay to be completed (odds 1000).
Has anyone any thoughts on using stop losses, or have any further ideas ?

Thanks

mickyj25
Posts: 43
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:10 pm

Re: Lay dobbing ?

Postby mickyj25 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:55 pm

I never watch them inplay. The lag between the odds on screen and the race itself make it very difficult to get bets on in time to react. I have on very few odd occasions let the bet run as a lay but as I say I've also been caught when horses out at 60 come in to win. Granted not very often but it suits my temperament to take small profit.

waccoe1975
Posts: 20
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 4:47 pm

Re: Lay dobbing ?

Postby waccoe1975 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:08 am

i always lay to back higher up , do you use software ( like geek toy) i switch to liability staking then reback higher up using liability staking
as an example
lay horse at 1.63 for £50 liability reback at say 2.00 for £50 liability if i greened up all horses the profit would be just as an example say £9.00 but as i brought my liability back the profit is say £21 on the other horses and if the horse wins i win 0p or 1p sometimes
so if your good at picking losers its more profitable
i tend to jumps/chases back runners and the usual horses for courses picks , in sprints i go for the draw bias and again back runner just taking the price jump

tony10000
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:23 pm

Re: Lay dobbing ?

Postby tony10000 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:47 pm

Hi MickyJ
I have tried to follow the races via tv with mixed results all down to the lag you mentioned.
Im adjusting the old mind not to be too greedy, i have been allowing the lay to trade out fully to get the full profit amount. This probably works 19 out 20 times at around the 20.00 odds mark. But as you know the one win will take a large chunk out of the bank. Have tried installing a stop lose 20 ticks away but tends to get hit too often ( will test with other distances )
At what level do you install your lays then backs ? How do you use the ratings (timeform/Dobbings) to find your choice of horse or do you go by the odds?

tony10000
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:23 pm

Re: Lay dobbing ?

Postby tony10000 » Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:01 am

Hi Waccoe
Ive never tried laying then backing at those low odds (1.63 - 2.00), i know this is what you should do but my thinking is that you will get more wins against you. (but will test this out).
I also have Geek Toy, what settings do you use ?
Interesting to know the you use the liability staking Plan. (will test this also)
Is this system profitable for you ?
Thanks

mickyj25
Posts: 43
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:10 pm

Re: Lay dobbing ?

Postby mickyj25 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:12 pm

waccoe

Geeks toy is my preferred trading tool. I always start off with the maxim ' what am I willing to lose?' So £50 is a non starter for me. I would look to lay a horse with a pace of 7 to 9 for a fixed liability of £10. For example a horse 4@3.35. I would then back the horse 5@2.68 for an all green book of 0.64 after commission. I prefer to win small and often than big and less often. That suits my temperament. Obviously you can adjust your stakes to suit you. Multiply those figures by ten and you have win of £6.40 for an initial liability of £100. Some will argue that the reward is not sufficient to the risk but that's an informed choice.


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