Newcastle - 1:00

Using Historical In Running prices to predict runner who may DOB today
martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Newcastle - 1:00

Postby martinkil » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:18 am

If flattering to deceive could be considered an artform then I think it's fair to say that in the first at Newcastle today – Tiercel – has nailed it. A 7yo gelding who has a lifetime dobbing percent of 63% under all conditions was rated in the 80's when trained by Roger Varian back in the day and used to go off at single digit prices in class 4 races.

He's been with Rebecca Bastiman a couple of year now and after four runs on the turf was switched back to the AW and after a sighter in a 5 runner race, delivered a bit of a shock when winning here at Newcastle at 50.0 on BF over 7f off a rating of 67 in a class 4 race a little over a year ago after a 7 week break.

He's twice run in class 6 races dobbing in both and with his inconsistent profile could well drift from his current 8.6 on BF, but there was something about the way he travelled last time when denied a run multiple times against admittedly poorer opposition that indicates he could at the very least DOB today, and maybe even deliver the main prize.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Newcastle - 1:00

Postby martinkil » Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:36 am

As expected Tiercel has drifted out to 14.5 from 8.6, a little earlier than expected, he could drift more, bit I've put half my dobbing stake on at this price - just in case.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Newcastle - 1:00

Postby martinkil » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:44 am

Another who's unlikely to win but could DOB is the lightly raced - Ideal Destiny – who like several here is having her handicap debut. In it's three novice races it started at BF 85, 46 and 75 and traded respectfully down to 14, 14 and 11. In it's last race it was beaten under 5 lengths in 5th. The winner is rated 85, the 2nd has since finished 2nd off 74, the 3rd is rated 80 having win since off 75, the 4th finished 2nd off 71.

As I said under 5l covered there 5 who pulled well clear of the other two. Ideal Destiny has a rating of 62 which is fair, but today she runs against 65 and lower rated runners today and has shown she can hold her place against better class runners so there is every chance she could at least DOB today ( as she has done in her 3 races) especially off her current price of 110 on BF.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Newcastle - 1:00

Postby martinkil » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:07 pm

Ah well - reality collides with my optimism in the first .... I'll quietly close the door on my way out!


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