B2L Selection Process..

Discuss trading options for the afternoon/evening racing
should be focused (mainly) on the pre-race market
jimonline
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:51 pm

B2L Selection Process..

Postby jimonline » Thu May 21, 2015 1:47 pm

Hi All

Thought I'd post to see your thoughts and suggestions regards to a selection process for DOB/Hedge betting horses.

I've learnt a little since my last post
And getting more used to using software. Betfair is simply a nightmare and will never use its interface again.

I've used the money formcards on here more and had a bit more success
Yesterday If I had left that daft arsenal game in the evening alone, would have ended up a half decent day.. Instead ended up being a "L"

I thought it may be worth seeing if any of you find more consistancy using certain filters and a typcial range application more than the use of other filters.
How far back is it more recommeded to look at (12/24/2+ years)
Typically with horse racing - I find that when you combine all the factors (with there being so many - going/course/dis/type/field size/trainer and jockey form etc etc) they just end up cancelling eachother out and you end up with no selection at all/unconfident in another or choosing one which would have flagged up anyhow under a few specific factors.

So basically what I'm saying is, do people who do this regularly and with confidence find there are certain aspects (filters) which are more applicable than others in choosing which horses to hedge/DOB in play.

Also those that do practice the B2L would you say full manual application is the way ahead or does anyone look at automation & set a certain tick offset from BSP or % drop from BSP in advance and let it run?
Is 50% hedge, mainly the aim amongst the majority?

As always, any help is appreciated
And thanks to those that have helped so far along the way.

Thanks
James

martinkil
Posts: 1007
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: B2L Selection Process..

Postby martinkil » Thu May 21, 2015 2:35 pm

The first thing I do on the moneyform card is set "look back" to 24+ months and sort on the DOB% and look for runners with a 60%+ lifetime dobbing percent. Then I'll narrow down on - NH/Flat - distance .. then .. class .. then going. Each individually - then two at a time etc - and then day Since if needed.

I usually let the numbers determine what sort of a trade I go for. If the are lots of 1 and 2 in the moneyform line I might miss of the DOB price and look to get several time my stake back at a lower level.

jimonline
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:51 pm

Re: B2L Selection Process..

Postby jimonline » Fri May 22, 2015 10:29 am

Hi Martin

Applied a system on Thurs using filters and pace analysis and gave some outstanding results...
However using the same application yesterday and the results were all over the show... A general mess.

So you use 2 years + by default & you look at the DOB % column for 60% and higher

With regards to distance do you look at the exact distance or say 1 or 2 either side
So if it's a 2m would you look at just 2m or 15f/2m/2m1f ? or 14f/15f/2m/2m1f/2m2f
To take into account horses stepping up/down in trip

With going if its say Good (Good to Firm in places) would you look at both Good and G-F ?
If it was good would you look at just good or 1 either side G-Yld/Gd/-GF

And the same for class if its a class 5 would you just look at class 5 or say 4 & 6 also?

Which software do you use? I assume all your trades are fully manual and you phase out your stakes as the race progresses?

Thanks for your help!
J

martinkil
Posts: 1007
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: B2L Selection Process..

Postby martinkil » Fri May 22, 2015 1:33 pm

I don't have a mechanical method for selecting runners - different races tend to use different approaches - I tend to "feel" my way through a card though in general I use -1 and +1 around selection. Not always though. I a runner usually DOBS at 2m/2m1f and it's 2m4f today then I might still try to DOB.

I use the betfair interface

martinkil
Posts: 1007
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: B2L Selection Process..

Postby martinkil » Fri May 22, 2015 1:35 pm

Have you looked at the dobbing reports -http://www.patternform.co.uk/aboutdobbingreports.htm

jimonline
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:51 pm

Re: B2L Selection Process..

Postby jimonline » Sun May 24, 2015 3:50 pm

Thanks for the info mate.

jimonline
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2015 12:51 pm

Re: B2L Selection Process..

Postby jimonline » Mon Jun 08, 2015 1:48 pm

Do you find certain odds ranges on horses and file sizes perform better than others. I've began to use 5.0 and 25.0 and 5-12 runners. Finding anything outside of this range can provd more inconsistent as a general.


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