Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
LoveWinners
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:00 pm

all goodwood

300 Firmament £60 ew bet365

335 Battaash £500 win this should be a 1/2 shot so the 5/6 was a real bonus for my banker

440 Sequilla £100 EW

LoveWinners
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:30 am

Onto the final day of goodwood and a great days racing all over but with that said i only like the one race enough to get involved so its short and hopefully sweet for me.


Goodwood Stewards' Sprint Handicap Consolation (1:50)


Golden Steps £75 Ew 10/1 bet365

I applied some filters trying to break this race down and apply the numbers after i have filtered but it meant i would have to back a few in the race so i wanted to either find a strong bet or miss the race entirely. I first took those with goodwood form, I then looked at those of 9 stone+, then looked at the top 8 in the market then issolated them by running in class 2 hc last time and came up with a solid list of Golden Steps, Classic Seniority , Maakaasib Boy In The Bar. Each of these have an obvious chance with all proven enough yet each have there positives (boy in the bar ability and jockey booking and strike of the combination ) Maakasib (on the improve) Classic Seniority ( Ability ) but none more so than Golden steps


Winner of this race in 2014 when with Marco Botti off a mark of 96. This horse has had a few problems along the way but that is reflected in the mark and gets in here off just 82. That alone is reason enough to investigate this horse further.. A thoroughly exposed runner with 34 runs resulting in 4 wins (12%),5 2nds and 5 3rds (38%) which on the whole is just ok but its when we break down relative form by 6f + on good+ its a more healthy 22%/44% whilst that isnt enough to sway judgement its enough too look at how this horse may run returning to a more suitable trip as the recent runs are more than encouraging over the 5f to suggest this horse is sitting on a big performance. Each and every win has come with a jockey switch but the real clincher is the likely track position of the horse being 2 boxes away from the improving Militia so we should she Mr Winston settle off the pace and allow this horse to be at least tracking a solid pace as will be more in comfort zone in this race anyway but having a target is always nice.


My big worry is Boy in the bar as the combination is a strong one but not only that the seems a large hint when this horse is ready, I think too often we look past these hints when a strong booking is made for a horse that seems in just average form and lifetime achievement, 18% sr and 40% place sr is fair but when we look at a horse like this and break down when this horse runs within 8 days we can see why this one could also be sitting on a big performance when Running within 14 day period this horses figures improve to - 14- 2- 1- 31631- 6- more illumination for this runner 40 % sr and 70 % place sr.


This is wide open but felt that i really had to back Golden steps here as if i would miss it then i would regret missing such a well handicapped runner with ideal conditions at a double figure price so whilst is wide open and i could have taken other angles into the race i feel comfortable about my decision to play from a angle based approach moreso than my numbers approach which were pointing me towards the selections stablemate on this occasion.

LoveWinners
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:25 pm

Well that hurt with golden steps refusing to race and the race was won by the numbers runner who was 20/1 this morning but that ins't the real issue here as it looks like the race supporters are not repaying bets on GS which sets a very bad picture for the casual punter as opposed to Paddy power who instantly come on to state their position. If this was a class 6 race on a wednesday evening i think you can argue either way but live racing in ITV and the feature supporters of the race are staying quiet and looks like the reason is because it will be deemed a runner, The optics just look so bad for them but only them IMO.

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby martinkil » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:00 pm

Hi Lovewinners - great contribution to the forum.

I'm a little confused about one thing - in a couple of post you mention the "numbers horse" - I'm not quite what you mean by this (I must have been off sick when you gave that lesson :) )

LoveWinners
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:20 pm

Good evening martin.


Basically the number horse is mentioned as it the highest rated value runner when comparing rating conversion against market odds. I have a model that creates a rating and then converts it to odds of that model, whilst top rated fairs well overall its not the number i look at as the value against market is the real power of the model itself. its a pretty simply strategy to back the top rated on either number but through my continual research when horses are 100%+ these are the number runners that show remarkable long term profits but as this thread is concerned i thought i would use them if they popped up on a weekend now and again. Overall i shall be posting the full numbers for all races elsewhere on the forum to show the potential of the ratings themselves in all formats but highlight and record all number runners as a contribution to the forum and show my appreciation to yourself and members for what seems like a continual ongoing process to turn patternform into a tangible betting approach for long term gains :idea:


I hope all is well with yourself.

LoveWinners
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:32 am

Well its shergar cup day and wanted to take the model for a spin in the special markets for a complete analysis and it pointed to a few bets for value as well as some interesting runners in the races themselves as well as highlighting many bets overall for a busy weekends action.


Specials

Winning team - The Girls £20 win @ 4/1 (Model price 3.8) not a fan of this type of bet but placed a fun bet on the outcome and hope to get a run for my money and £20 for a few hours of entertainment is worth it especially with the edge on offer.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Ascot
13:05 El Astronaute £40 EW 11/2 bet365 3 place 1/4

There are better prices for another place but the high percentage of this horse finishing in the top 3 persuaded me to take the better value terms as opposed to the race terms elsewhere although my reduced stake should highlight the tightness of this race overall but the value seems to be on my side with a model price of 4.2.


13:40 Cleonte £200 Win @ 7/2 generally

This is a numbers horse with a model price of just 2.6. I personally would never make this horse so short but in the long run i doubt my opinion will hold a candle to the numbers so put my feelings aside and just placed the bet.


16:00 Tangled £100 EW @18/1 Bet365

Another numbers runner and another one i raised my eyebrows at but placed the bet regardless using a fresh account that will likely be emptied if i get the result. A model price of just 7.2 really i had to just click place bet despite me really fancying George Of Hearts.


Chelmsford 13:30 Toffee Galore £500 Win 10/11 Ladbrokes

Went in my notebook when Sent off fav in what looked a decent enough race on debut and finished 3rd behind 2 runners with previous experience, i think that form is strong enough to go close again with the winner of that race running ok in a listed race since and i expect this horse to put it to them under Oisin Murphy.




Elsewhere the following are numbers horses and place £100 win on them

Kilbeggan 20:35 Batcio @2/1 , the price is gone shorter but as with all numbers horses aslong as they do not halve in price it will be fine for anyone considering a wager.

lingfield 19:15 All Back To Mine @ 5/1 its now 7/2

lingfield Vegas Boy @2/1 i missed the 9/4 as i was having trouble getting on the horse is around the 7/4 mark atm so some value is left

LoveWinners
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:03 am

well it was a profitable day which is always nice although it could have been much better had i just bet the numbers although the biggest bet of the day ran a solid race only to be run out of it which was a shame.


Sunday

Curragh

15:35 so perfect £40 ew @ 20/1 This is a race where i really am in a tough spot due to taking on such strong form lines of the top two and the amount of bets i would need to show a long term profit. The model has advertise a 1.9 shot with Sergei Prokofiev next in at 2.4 which means i could have took a safer option by playing advertise as there is some value and the event happening is much more likely but i think with So perfect priced at 12.5 i think i need to just strike these bets more often than i do on a daily basis through the week but tend to lean on those at the front of the market tht hold decent value to keep control of the funds and spread as there are so many wagers to make on a daily basis but i when looking at historical data i should really just play the value numbers regardless whether it is only 10% or 90% that a result is likely to happen. I mean looking at the above scenario we clearly know sergei is significantly more likely to win over the bet itself and i wouldnt consider it due to the poor value despite the fact its clearly more likely on my numbers that that occurs, then we have advertise who is most likely to win and is value but not as much as the selection.


17:15 Ahlan Bil Zain £50 ew @16/1 this is a numbers runners with a model price of 7.4 but i wouldn't want to over stake this one with such a high percentage of 3 yr olds in the race

martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby martinkil » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:03 am

The BOG generally available with online bookies would have helped with Cleonte - 9-2 SP - and a flurry of other winners, as you say made it a nice day.

LoveWinners
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:58 pm

yes Martin BOG is always beneficial in near all situations. it was a decent enough day for the model and it seemed i chose the best option for the early market again today despite not getting the whole load the return was enough to be pleased with although maybe i should have f/c the value options but that 20/20 is always correct :lol: i shall hope for this to continue throughout the week and return here next weekend for the usual action ahead.

LoveWinners
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: Turkey or Chicken? Weekend best bets leading upto xmas

Postby LoveWinners » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:40 pm

Newbury

Denford Stakes (13:50)

Antonia De Vega £75 Win 10/3 Bet365

This horse created a good impression and went straight into the notebook and the form has been boosted since, Its a tough race with many having a decent chance but i could not miss this runner tomorrow despite my numbers stating a 3.6 chance ill happily believe the adjustment i personally made offers more value than the numbers suggest.


Geoffrey Freer Stakes (14:25)

Raymond Tusk £200 Win @3/1 bet 365 / others

This is a numbers horse with a model price of 2.4. Not sure i agree here as i liked Dal Harraild who was a model price of 5.0 so does offer some value at 5/1 but have to play the numbers here and take the result on the chin should it get beat?


Ripon

Great St Wilfrid Handicap

Al Qahwa £100 EW @14/1 Ladbrokes 5 places @1/5
Another numbers runner here.


Tramore 18:50

St Lawrence Gap £100 EW @ 7/1 Bet 365
The 3rd and final numbers runner tomorrow


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