Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Discuss any of the upcoming elections in the USA
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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby martinkil » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:03 pm

On the 2020 presidential front I've already backed Bernie Sanders at 20.0.
If he's healthy, I think he'll run and he's the ideal candidate to go up against Trump.
He has an approval/disapproval of 68/26 - the best of all senators.
If he runs I think he has a great chance of winning - the only question is his health, and at the moment that looks fine

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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby LoveWinners » Sun May 13, 2018 10:39 am

sorry martin, i only just realised you replied (twice).

Regarding approval ratings i look at things from an media POV for cosideration and why i believe it will go north.

When watching the media coverage now starting to have the spotlight put on them i feel we will see his ratings go north from a trends point, Not start to current, he had a dip and will continue to climb if people look into the coverage he is up against.

The media has always been left leaning which is fine but when that media tries to become completely biased there are real problems.

Trumps negative is around 90%.

Looking at the "scandal" point for instance stormy's representative michael avenatti has been on 60 times in one month and it looks terrible for the media.

more importantly Social media companies were completely biased but not clever about their approach, The fact that social media was so biased was terrible and will hurt the anti trump left. Watching Mark Zuckerberg in robotic performance didnt help one bit either. Silicon Valley's anti conservative views are becoming more and more apparent.

I believe that with all the anti-rhetoric is very bad for the left as its just not subtle and given this opinion on trump is without doubt on the up since the 100 day mark and likely will continue to go north as the spotlight continues to shine.

the problem with bernie is will people buy into his socialist view to see it through to the end? if it was gauged on passion he would be a shoe in but i do feel he may fall at the final hurdle despite i like the man i really dislike the practicality of socialism in general.I believe he would have beaten HC had in not been for the old faithful "money Talks" and the field was fair.

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Re: Arizona special election 2018 (24 April)

Postby martinkil » Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:50 pm

As I mentioned I had already backed Bernie for 2020 at 20.0 when I posted last April. During the intervening period had drifted and I also continued backing him up to 30.0 - overall I averaged 24.0.

Once he declared he would run he dropped to 12.0 and after fundraising $18 million over 41 days in the first quarter he went as low as 6.8 - I reclaimed my stake and some at 8.0 - with plenty of profits if he wins.

Trump is still favourite and dropped from 3.3 to 2.42 after Barr's summary of the mueller report which I think is far too short. The only thing going for him is that people think he's been good for the economy - i.e. the Obama recovery, on all other measures he's under water.

He's not doing anything to appeal to anyone but his base and I can't see how that is a winning strategy.

But there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge before the 2020 elections - so anything can happen.

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