Thursday 17th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 306
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Thursday 17th May

Postby Devasteve » Thu May 17, 2018 12:03 pm

Not doing too well of late, but first look at York this year. It’s a handicap in which I’ve enjoyed middling success through the years, although with it being York there is never the greatest confidence – I have been known to go 0 for the season there! Now I discover one of my fancies is a N/R, which has rather put the cat among the pigeons as I haven’t the time spare to fully revise all my calculations. Let’s hope I get a spot of good luck then!

York 16.05 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (106) 8f gd/sf – 11 Run

Last year – 284 (109) gd/sf – 17 ran
Here Comes When 10/1 7-9-1 (102) Dr 12 by 2.25l from Chelsea Lad 11/2 F 4-8-8 (96) Dr 1

Third Time Lucky 6-8-11 (93) Dr 10
05 May Cl 2 Hcap (310 s) 9f gd Nwmk 11/1 4.5l 3/16 off 93
in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, stayed on final furlong
Beat Mythical Madness (0) on the AW at Wolverhampton in March last year, but last turf win was when taking the Cambridgeshire off 95 in September 2015; not entirely reliable nowadays, but has run well enough in his 2 starts this term; just a query if 8f might be a bit sharp for him nowadays, especially on faster ground.
Plus: class (W); going (W; (distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (12 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (47) looks to be close to returning to the winner’s enclosure and a possible contender.
Baraweez 8-8-8 (90) Dr 4
11 May Cl 2 Hcap (210 u) 7.5f gd Chest 7/1 1.25l 1/15 off 89
hampered on inside and shuffled back towards rear over 6f out, headway and switched right over 1f out, strong run to lead final 100 yards, won going away
Was snapping a losing streak that stretched back to August 2015 when overcoming difficulties to win over7.5f at Chester last week; carries a 3lbs penalty for that, but not impossible he could be thereabouts again having won off 99 in the past,
Plus: class (W); going (W; (distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (6 days);
Minus: 3lbs penalty;
Verdict: (47) fit and in form, so a contender.
Original Choice 4-9-1 (97) Dr 11 N/R
05 May Cl2 Hcap (260 d) 8f gd/sf Weth 6/1 0.25l 1/15 off 94
mid-division, headway over 2f out, led approaching final furlong, held on well
Progressive sort at 3yo and having rather disappointed in the Spring Mile at Doncaster on his return made amends with a career best at Wetherby at the start of the month; up 3lbs here, but the main query is the faster ground, although he has won on gd.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (12 days); career best lto;
Minus: going; course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (46) fit improving sort from an in-form stable and a contender.
Afaak 4-9-1 (97) Dr 6
Runner-up in the Silver Cambridgeshire, but looked in need of the run at Newbury on his return last month; no surprise were he to improve today.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: course;
Verdict: (39) chance on last season’s form, but will have to improve from return; a contender with questions.
Cape Byron 4-9-4 (100) Dr 3
Lightly-raced sort (6th start) who won over 8f at Ascot on his return last year and placed in listed company on only other start; down the field in Group race at Meydan in January but has had wind surgery since; makes his return today in hcap debut.
Plus: going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: class (?); course (?); 126-day break;
Verdict: (29) stable in good eno8igh form, but a contender with questions.

I wouldn’t totally write off Mythical Madness, but he may be a little over-burdened here and has failed twice at York. Cape Byron is an interesting one, but a little high in the weights for his season and hcap debut so despite the wind operation I think I’ll pass as he’s rather short in price. It was a surprise to see Baraweez win at Chester last week, but as an 8yo I can’t see him making it a double and again will pass. Afaak I’m not really sure about, although he could go well here. So I’m looking to Third Time Lucky to live up to his name and beat out Original Choice with Afaak perhaps in third.With Original Choice now a N/R, I’ve got to revise my thoughts, so perhaps Third Time Lucky from Afak with Cape Byron in third; fingers crossed!

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