Friday 1st June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday 1st June

Postby Devasteve » Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:38 am

Well Martin, it would be too easy if I put the winner first. The only problem is that I always forget where I've hidden it!!

Second holiday of the week, but of the three handicaps I never got any further than looking at the first. Shame really, as today there’s three at Epsom, yet tomorrow only two across all the cards! So fingers crossed that June starts out better than May ended.

Epsom 14.35 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (97) 8.5f sf – 9 Run


Last year – 249 (105) gd – 12 ran
GK Chesterton 3/1 Jt F 4-8-10 (94) Dr 6 by 1l from Mythical Madness 20/1 6-8-11 (95) Dr 11

Medburn Dream 5-8-13 (89) Dr 7
07 May Cl 3 Hcap (74 u) 8f gd/fm Wind (96) 5/1 2.75l off 83
Well away, made all, kicked on 3f out, driven 2f out, stayed on stoutly final furlong
Won over C&D in similar conditions as a 3yo, although that was in Cl 4; won off 83 on turf at Lingfield last season but rather struggled thereafter off higher marks; made the most of the fall to his Lingfield mark when leading all the way in a Cl 3 at Windsor last month; has been raised 6lbs for that and this is a tougher contest.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (25 days);
Minus: up 6lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (44) Promising return at Windsor but will need further improvement to set a new career best winning mark and perhaps not the strongest contender.
King’s Pavilion 5-9-3 (93) Dr 3
05 May Cl 2 Hcap (259 u) 8f hv Weth (100) 12/1 3.5l 8/15 off 94
Held up, ridden along 2f out, kept on final furlong, never threatened leaders
Best form has always come on softer ground as when winning on hv at Carlisle last September, and when finishing runner-up over 10f on sf at Ripon in April on his second start since coming over from David Barron’s stable; followed up with a credible effort in the transferred Hunt Cup at Wetherby last month and has since been dropped 1lb; trainer’s first runner at Epsom.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (27 days); recent form run (43 days); down 1lb;
Minus: trainer (C)?;
Verdict: (38) shown he can be a force off this sort of mark and a possible contender.
Mythical Madness 7-9-2 (92) Dr 2
Runs off a 3lbs lower mark than when runner-up in last year’s renewal, subsequently going on to win at Haydock off 96; hasn’t shown a lot in 14 subsequent starts, although runner-up at Wolverhampton in March and only just denied at Chelmsford on penultimate start; question too about his ability on sf (0/2).
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (15 days); recent form run (29 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: going;
Verdict: (36) 3lbs less than last year in weaker race, but being a year older and soft ground make him a contender with questions.
Donncha 7-9-1 (91) Dr 8
05 May Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 7f gd/sf Good (100) 8/1 2.25l 3/14 off 92
Mid-division, headway from 3f out, every chance 2f out, soon ridden, kept on until no extra towards finish
Not won since for almost 3 years, but is only 3 races into his career since being gelded in November and the last two have looked promising; steps back up in trip and his having his first start here, but having been dropped a lb after his Goodwood effort is now back down below his last winning mark.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (27 days); down 1lb;
Minus: course (?); 21-race losing streak;
Verdict: (35) certainly showing a return to form, but first visit to Epsom and has never won above Cl 3, so another contender with questions.
Masham Star 4-8-10 (86) Dr 6
22 May Cl 4 Hcap (61 d) 7f gd/fm Ayr (86) 13/8 F 0.05l 2/9 off 86
Pressed leader, led over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong, headed close home
Better performer on AW than turf, but showed some decent form in first part of past season, notably when runner-up over 8.5f on sf at Hamilton in July off 87 and occupying the same position off 100 at Newmarket 11 days later; caught on the post over 7f at Ayr lto and while he’s up in class today, not without a chance off this low mark.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (10 days);
Minus: course; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (35) better on AW, but not without a chance off this mark and a contender.

A race that normally goes to a 4yo/5yo, although 9yo Vainglory did win in 2013, which raises a question about the chances of both Mythical Madness and Donncha, especially as there are also doubts about ground suitability for MM. Donncha’s long losing run also bugs me, so I’ll look to the other three to provide the winner. Medburn Dream would need a career best to go close, so I’m perhaps persuaded to go for King’s Pavilion from Masham Star with Medburn Dream and Donncha scrapping it out for third.

Second holiday of the week, but of the three handicaps I never got any further than looking at the first. Shame really, as today there’s three at Epsom, yet tomorrow only two across all the cards! So fingers crossed that June starts out better than May ended.

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