Saturday 9th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 9th June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:58 am

Sorry to be late, but tried to look at too much again, Let’s hope it does better than last Saturday’s dismal effort!

Musselburgh 14.30 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (106) 5f gd/fm – 17 Run (16 at best)

Last year – 623 (111) gd/fm 17 Run
Line Of Reason 11/1 7-8-12 (97) Dr 8 by 0.25l from Harry Hurricane 9/1 5-8-13 (98) Dr 7
Caspian Prince 16/1 8-9-12 (111) Dr 4 was 1.75l 4th
El Astronaute 14/1 4-8-9 (94) Dr 5 was 3.02l 7th
Orion’s Bow 11/2 F 6-9-2 (104) Dr 13 was 3.86l 11th
Move In Time 28/1 9-9-0 (99) Dr 10 was 6.38l 17th

El Astronaute 5-9-5 (101) Dr 14
26 May Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 5f gd York (107) 10/1 0.1l 2/19 off 101
Raced towards stands' side, close up, ridden to lead over 1f out, driven inside final furlong, headed and no extra near finish
Front-running sprinter who has continued to improve since finishing a respectable 7th off a 7lbs lower mark in last year’s renewal; has been in fine form in all 4 starts this season, winning at York off 98 in mid-May and then only just denied late on back at the same venue 9 days later in another career best with Major Jumbo (0) a further 0.75l back in 4th; no reason he shouldn’t run his race again today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days); career best lto;
Minus: course;
Verdict: (50) consistent form on turf and a contender off the same mark as at York.
Move In Time 10-8-8 (90) Dr 3
19 May Cl 4 Hcap (78 d) 5f gd/fm Nwmk (84) 7/2 3.5l 1/8 off 83
Broke well, soon steadied and travelled strongly in midfield, closed to join leaders over 1f out, ridden to lead 1f out, edging left but quickened well clear inside final furlong, very readily
Broke long losing run (32 months) at Newmarket last month in fine style, although that was only Cl 4; raised 7lbs for that and is up 2 classes, although his improvement this season has already suggested that Midgely has quickly got to the bottom of him; however, as a 10yo one does suppose that his best days are behind him and that he might find this too tough a task at this age.
Plus: Class (W); going (W); distance (W); course; trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 7lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: impressive at Newmarket, but asking for a lot of improvement off a 10yo and not the strongest contender.
Major Jumbo 4-9-5 (101) Dr 10
26 May Cl 2 Hcap (311 u) 5f gd York (107) 13/2 F 0.85l 4/19 off 101
Close up towards centre, slight lead 2f out, soon ridden and headed over 1f out, driven inside final furlong, no extra towards finish
Has continued to improve this season, recording a career best when taking a Cl 3 at Newmarket on his return in April under today’s rider; matched that effort when 3rd to El Astronaute (+3) at York the following month and was again behind EA (+5) there 9 days later; meets him on the same terms again today and can’t honestly see any reason for that running to be reversed.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14d);
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (38) still improving and likely to be thereabouts, but not the strongest contender.
Soie D’Leau 6-9-2 (98) Dr 5
19 May Cl 2 Hcap (129 d) 5f gd/fm Thir (101) 11/2 0.25l 1/6 off 95
Made all, pushed along over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, always doing enough
Won on his debut for his new stable having less the Stubbs yard in May; has been raised 3lbs for that and will find this a tougher task, but can’t completely ignore.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: course (?); up 3lbs;
Verdict: (36) fit and in form, but maybe not the strongest contender at this level;
Line Of Reason 8-8-8 (90) Dr 3
17 May Cl 2 Hcap (187 s) 5f gd York (101) 11/1 3.85l 7/18 off 92
Raced towards far side, towards rear, headway 2f out, soon ridden, stayed on final furlong
Hold-up sprinter who won last year’s renewal off a 7lbs higher mark; subsequently won at Newcastle off 100 but was weighted out of things thereafter; just the 2 starts on turf this season and hinted at a revival at York last month when a creditable 7th to El Astronaute (+6) and having been dropped another 2lbs meets EA on 5lbs better terns today.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (C); recent outing (23 days); down 2lbs;
Verdict: (34) great chance on last year’s form, but hasn’t shown it often enough since to be anything more than a contender with questions.
Dark Shot 5-8-8 (90) Dr 17
Beaten 0.25l by El Astronaute (+15) at York last month on first start for new yard having come over from Andrew Balding; not disgraced in the Epsom Dash last weekend; runs off a 2lbs higher mark today, but meets EA on 1lb better terms than at York and is drawn in the same segment; interesting too that it’s Connor Murtagh claiming the 5lbs today instead of Gormley.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent start (7 days); recent form run (23 days);
Minus: up 2lbs;
Verdict: (30) smart effort on debut for new yard and has to be considered a possible contender today.

The past trend that worries me today is that 11/14 past winners carried 9-1 or less, which raises questions about El Astronaute, although he passes to my final group. I have to drop Soie D’Leau though, as I have questions about his ability at this level. I am also dropping Major Jumbo, as he seems to have a problem getting past El Astronaute and may well have the same trouble today. Move In Time was impressive at Newmarket, but as a 10yo going back up 2 classes I somehow doubt he has the ability of yesteryear. Last year’s winner Line Of Reason threatened a return to form at York last month and may go close, as may Dark Shot who wasn’t beaten far by El Astronaute at York. So my final trio have to be El Astronaute, Dark Shot and Line Of Reason, and going with the higher drawn pair I’ll take El Astronaute from Dark Shot with Line Of Reason battling with Move In Time for the minor placings.

Newmarket 14.35 Cl 2 Hcap 162 (100) 6f gd/fm – 11 Run
3yo = 8lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 129 (99) gd 13 ran
Culturati 5/1 Jt F 4-89-9 (94) Dr 6 by 1.5l from Scorching Heat 7/1 3-8-3 (82) Dr 3
Gunmetal 5/1 Jt F 4-9-9 (94) Dr 1 was 8.5l 11th

Double Up 7-10-0 (100) Dr 8
Not won on turf since a 5f victory at Ascot in August 2015 off 98, although did win over 6f at Kempton in November off today’s mark in his last hcap start.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (29 days);
Minus: infrequent winner;
Verdict: (46) rating based on past glories and not a contender on current form.
Eastern Impact 7-9-8 (94) Dr 1
Hasn’t won for a while but a useful sprinter on his day and usually runs well here, as one his first 2 starts this season before failing to get home over a rare try over 7f; has been dropped a further 2lbs and is now 10lbs lower than when 7th in last year’s Wokingham.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (24 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: 31-month losing streak;
Verdict: (43) early season hints he may be ready to snap that run and a contender perhaps.
Baron Bolt 5-9-8 (94) Dr 11
18 May Cl 2 Hcap (194 d) 6f gd/fm Newb (99) 5/1 jt F 0.75l 2/13 off 92
Raced centre, in touch, ridden and progress over 2f out, chased winner entering final furlong, kept on well for 2nd but always being held
Consistent performer last year despite just the single success; only just denied over C&D on his return in May and then another decent effort at Newbury 12 days later in a career best; raised 2lbs, but still looks as if there could be more to come.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d);recent form run (22 days); career best lto;
Minus: raised 2lbs; trainer (C - 0/25)
Verdict: (43) unlikely to be far away, but is becoming one that’s hard to win with and a contender with questions.
Gunmetal 5-9-7 (93) Dr 9
19 May Cl 3 Hcap (97 d) 6f gd/fm Thir (94) 10/1 1.25l 1/11 off 88
Midfield, pushed along and headway 2f out, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, kept on well
C&D winner here in April last year when with Charlie Hills and after being gelded and changed hands between seasons, made a winning debut for Barron yard at Thirsk last month; raised 5lbs for that and up in class today, but has been there and done that.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (C); form run lto (21 days);
Minus: up 5lbs; up in class; Tr (14d – 0/18);
Verdict: (43) positive return at Thirsk and a contender if building on that.

I see that 3yos have won 2 of the last 3 renewals, but Bungee Jump only won a Cl 4 at Chepstow and she’s 6lbs higher in much better class today, so I think I’ll pass. I’ll also pass on Double Up, while Baron Bolt is becoming hard to win with and thus it might be worth taking a chance on Eastern Impact to take the prize from Gunmetal and Baron Bolt.

Newmarket 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (103) 14f gd/fm – 13 Run

Last year – 280 (103) gd – 14 ran
Jaameh 9/2 F 4-8-11 (93) Dr 12 by 0.1l from Byron Flyer 8/1 6-8-5 (87) Dr 9
Amazing Red 9/1 4-8-1 (88) Dr 11 was 15.85l 9th

Quloob 4-9-5 (98) Dr 6
18 Aug Cl 3 Hcap (226 u) 14f gd/sf Nott (95) 5/2 F 0.25l 2/12 off 94
Held up towards rear, headway over 3f out, chased leaders well over 1f out and soon ridden, driven to chase leader inside final furlong, kept on well towards finish
Only just denied going 4/4 last season when runner-up in yet another career best at Nottingham last August; likely will show further improvement this time round despite starting off 4lbs higher, which should nor prove insurmountable, plus can go well fresh.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto; career best lto;
Minus: class (?); up 4lbs; up in class; 295-day break;
Verdict: (49) likely to continue improvement and a contender on his return.
Amazing Red 5-9-0 (93) Dr 7
Inclined to forgive last effort here when was twice denied a clear run over C&D; had previously won over 16f at Kempton and is generally a consistent sort, although I’m not sure he wants the ground this fast.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (22 days);
Minus: going;
Verdict: (40) consistent but might prefer easier ground and not the strongest contender.
Byron Flyer 7-9-5 (98) Dr 6
26 May Cl 2 Hcap (162 d) 16f gd Hayd (97) 7/2 0.5l 2/9 off 96
Led 1f, tracked leaders when headed, pushed along to challenge 2f out, soon ridden, ran on well under pressure final furlong, just held
His narrow defeat in last year’s renewal off 87 sparked a run of 3 similar defeat across the summer, which saw him run off 93 when 7/34 in the Cesarewitch; returned with a fair effort in the Chester Cup and followed up with another career best in a narrow defeat at Haydock a couple of weeks back; not sure the drop in trip will help as he seems to lack the pace to actually win.
Plus: class (F); distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days); career best lto;
Minus: going; up 2lbs;
Verdict: (36) 11lbs higher than last year make it a hard task as a top contender.
Addicted To You 4-9-2 (95) Dr 10
28 May Cl 4 Hcap (83 u) 16f AW Chelm (85) 3/1 F 10l 1/10 off 85
Made all, 2 lengths lead 2f out, pushed along into 4 lengths lead 1f out, came further clear inside final furlong, very easily
Useful stayer at a lower level and look ready to make an upward move at the end of last season; easy winner in a career best over 16f in Cl 4 on the AW last month and not surprisingly has seen his mark rocket 10lbs; one suspects though that we have no means seen the best of him yet, although has to prove he can handle the ground.
Plus: distance (F); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (12 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); going (?); up 10lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (33) improving sort, though ground makes him a contender with questions.

Plenty with possible angles here, but sadly I’ve no time for more than a quick glance. From my list, Byron Flyer has a lot to do compared to last year and has trouble getting his head in front, while Amazing Red may have problems with such quick ground. The same could possibly be said about Addicted To You, so I’m going for the returning Quloob from Addicted To You and Byron Flyer.

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Re: Saturday 9th June

Postby martinkil » Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:06 pm

Decoding the selections gives me a treble on Line Of Reason, Baron Bolt and Byron Flyer :)

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