Dom's "Many Variables" selections

It appears that some posters want to put selections up without any reasoning. This is the forum where they can be posted. "Selection only" post found elsewhere will be deleted
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Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:12 pm

Dom's "Many Variables" selections

Postby ericporkham » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:19 am

I read this article today, which was shared on Twitter by Josh Wright, entitled "How To Find A 66/1 Winner" so I thought I'd see if I could apply some of the thinking using Patternform.

So, we're looking for horse(s) with outstanding speed ratings under very similar conditions to today. We're looking for horses that have had plenty of runs, so ignore maidens, etc.

Going: Same as today, but allow for similar (eg if it's GF, you might want to check if anything has an outstanding figure on Firm or Good)
Race Distance: Same as today, again, if it's an in-between distance, say 7f110y, you might want to select 7f\8f
LH\RH: Only select if they are going that direction, eg) if it's on a straight course, don't bother
Look back: 12 Months

Next, go to Lawrence Taylor's "Speed Ratings" on ATR ... ed-ratings (this is free to access, so I don't think there's a problem putting this up) and see if your Patternform selection(s) are mentioned in Lawrence's write up. They don't have to be top rated, but it's worth looking at the form to see if the horse(s) have performed a good rating on ground\conditions.

If it's an unusual course, like Epsom, it's worth checking if the horse(s) have ran well under similar conditions on similar courses (eg Brighton)

If in doubt, ignore, move onto the next race.

It's NOT an exact science, it's NOT a point and click system, you have to do your homework and decide what your selections are, you're using Patternform as a tool to do this.

These are today's results from my selections, which are pretty impressive:

Miss Sheridan WON 10/1
Derek Duval WON 7/1
Marnie James WON 9/2
Dizzy G WON 3/1
Baron Bolt WON 11/4
Narjes 2nd 12/1 (5 ran)
Cryptonite 3rd (only 7 ran)
Dourado Unplaced
Punkawallah Unplaced
Golden Guest Unplaced

When I get time, I will keep repeating and will post on here if I get chance, but I'd suggest you have a look yourself, as you may come up with better variables and selections than I have.

Good luck!

Posts: 944
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Dom's "Many Variables" selections

Postby martinkil » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:36 pm

Sorry DOM since this was your first post I have to approve it - I have now and future posts should be OK

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