Saturday 28th July

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 28th July

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jul 28, 2018 10:59 am

Having finally slogged my way through this I now find that there has been a severe change of going at York, so that’s probably a total waste of time and there certainly isn’t sufficient left to go through the whole nine yards again! Fingers crossed that the same doesn’t happen at Ascot and I get lucky enough to get one in the frame. I’m afraid old age has been catching up with me of late and the zest for analysis is waning.

York 14.05 Cl2 Hcap 156 (101) 7f gd/fm – 8 Run [now sf I believe]

Last year – 156 (97) gd/sf – 10 ran
Get Knotted 4/1 5-9-3 (94) Dr 8 by 1.75l from Fingal’s Cave 14/1 5-9-0 (91) Dr 2
Starlight Romance 9/2 3-8-6 (90) was 9.75l was 7th

Culturati 5-9-13 (100) Dr 6
Has won 3 of his 5 starts, the last in June of last year when strolling up over 6f in a career best at Newmarket coming back from a 610-day break; won over 7f at Ascot as a 2yo, so no problem with the trip either; only question is that he’s never run on faster than gd.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C);
Minus: going (?); 413-day break;
Verdict: (48) assuming he’s fit to fire, a contender.
Get Knotted 6-9-8 (95) Dr 7
Has won the last 2 renewals off 92 and then 94 last year and efforts this season suggest that he should be thereabouts off this mark and will welcome the drop back in trip today..
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (14 days);
Minus:
Verdict: (46) in good enough form and conditions look sure to suit, a contender.
Arcanada 5-10-0 (101) Dr 4
Had a good winter on the AW winning all 3 of his starts, but has not fared so well since returning to turf.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (35 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: going
Verdict: (41) hard to see him figuring on fast ground and not a strong contender.

This would appear to lie between Culturati and Get Knotted who are preferred in that order.

York 14.40 Cl2 Hcap 311 (108) 6f gd/fm – 19 Run (17 at best) (now sf I believe)
3yo = 5lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 311 (102) gd/sf – 15 ran
Flying Pursuit 12/1 4-8-7 (90) Dr 1 by 2l from Al Qahwa 9/1 4-9-3 (97) Dr 2

Intisaab 7-9-13 (108) Dr 5
21 Jul Prem Hcap (530 u) 6.5f gd Curr 8/1 0.75l 1/17 off 103
dwelt, towards rear and raced in near side group, headway and switched right 1f out, stayed on well final furlong to lead close home
Made the most of his lowered mark when getting up late at the Curragh last weekend; however, he runs off a 5lbs higher mark here and while that’s offset my his rider’s claim it may be a stiff task to overcome.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: up 5lbs;
Verdict: (53) fine effort last weekend, but harder to repeat this weekend off top weight; nevertheless a contender.
Golden Apollo 4-8-13 (94) Dr 1
30 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (190 d) 6f AW Nwcs 9/1 2.25l 5/13 off 95
mid-division, driven over 2f out, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong, not pace to reach leaders
Won valuable hcap over C&D here last season and most recent effort at Newcastle suggests he may be returning to form, plus he’s now dropped below his last winning mark at Ascot in August.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (7 days); down 1lb;
Minus:
Verdict: (46) appears to be running into form at last and a contender.
Enjazaat 3-9-3 (103) Dr 7
21 Jul Gr 3 Stks (340 d) 6f gd/fm Newb 50/1 2.75l 5/10 off 103
held up behind, headway entering final furlong, kept on towards finish
Won in listed company as a 2yo and put in a career best when taking on older horses in group class at Newbury last weekend; always wary of taking such form into hcaps, but has to be considered in making his hcap debut.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (c); form run lto (7 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: course (?);
Verdict: (41) promising 3yo who warrants consideration as a contender.
Harome 4-8-12 (93) Dr 19
13 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (100 d) 5f gd/fm York 4/1 Jt F 4l 1/9 off 85
made all, ridden clear over 1f out, ran on well
Been in great form of late putting up a career best over 5f here a fortnight ago; now he has to show he can repeat this improvement back over 6f, and off an 8lbs higher mark from a wide draw.
Plus: going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (15 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); up 8lbs; up in class;
Verdict: (40) in good form, but trip, draw and rise in weight and class mean he’s a contender with questions.
Growl 6-9-4 (99) Dr 16
Ran off 109 when 4th in last year’s Steward’s Cup, but has shown little since; can’t deny he’s well handicapped, but starting to lose faith in his desire to show his talents.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); recent outing (35 days); down 3lbs;
Minus: course; no recent form;
Verdict: (31) well handicapped but no recent form to back up considering him a contender.

Trends don’t throw up anything particularly interesting, other than most winners had finished in the top 2 of 1 or both of their last 2 starts. Growl would just about qualify under that if you didn’t look too closely at the form, but I have to pass on him and Eastern Impact. Flying Pursuit won last year, but Golden Apollo looks more likely from the Easterby yard today. Harome has been on fire over 5f, but I’m not so sure switched back to 6f, especially from a wide draw, so I’ll pass there too, while in all honesty Intisaab looks to have too much of a burden to carry. As with most York sprints, there’s a whole host that could win but my best suggestion would be Golden Apollo from Enjazaat and perhaps Intisaab claiming 3rd.

Ascot 15.00 Cl2 Hcap 934 (111) 7f gd/fm – 29 Run
3yo = 7lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 934 (109) gd/sf – 27 ran
Stamp Hill 50/1 4-8-5 (90) Dr 14 by 1.25l from Mijack 25/1 3-8-2 (94) Dr 26
Firmament 33/1 5-9-10 (109) Dr 25 was 3.02l 5th
Makzeem 11/2 F 4-8-6 (91) Dr 1 was 3.52l 6th
Shady McCoy 50/1 7-8-3 (88) Dr 10 was 4.52l 8th
Flaming Spear 9/1 5-9-2 (101) Dr 8 was 5.52l 9th
Burnt Sugar 40/1 5-8-3 (88) Dr 6 was 5.97l 12th

Il Primo Sole 3-8-12 (103) Dr 21
21 Jun Cl 2 3yo-Hcap (750 u) 8f gd/fm Ascot 9/1 2.5l 5/30 off 102
led stands side group 3f, tracked winner, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace, no impression when lost place inside final furlong
Showed promise as a 2yo and has certainly trained on, finishing 5th in the Britannia here lto; runs off only 1lb higher mark here and suspicion that the drop back in trip could well suit him, although is taking on older horses for the first time.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (37 days); career best lto; high draw;
Minus: 1lb higher;
Verdict: (49) largely unexposed, but looks to be improving and a possible contender
Makzeem 5-9-5 (103) Dr 26
4 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (750 u) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 9/1 1.25l 5/18 off 103
held up behind centre, driven and headway inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to challenge and every chance inside final furlong, no extra towards finish
Runs off a 12lbs higher mark than when sent off favourite for last year’s renewal and coming home in 6th; subsequently won at Newmarket in September and finished a respectable 4/18 over C&D here the following month; tried in listed class on his first 2 starts this term, but disappointed before returning to form in the Bunbury at Newmarket a fortnight back when 5th to Burnt Sugar (-4) and dead-heaters Shady McCoy (-6) and Spanish City (-12) ; likely to go close again, although a little more weight than ideal and believe he might prefer softer ground.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (37 days); high draw;
Minus:
Verdict: (45) can’t be ignored, but being asked questions off this weight and not the strongest contender perhaps.
Ripp Orf 4-8-8 (92) Dr 16
21 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (280 u) 8f gd/fm Nwmkt 3/1 4.5l 2/9 off 92
held up in rear, not clear run entering final 2f, switched right approaching final furlong, ran on to go 2nd towards finish, no chance with winner
Has been in consistent form this season, winning the Victoria Cup over C&D here in mid-May and has since won over 8f at Newmarket this month; didn’t get the best of runs at Newmarket last weekend and by the time he made his move 1f out the winner had already flown; also suspect that he may prefer 7f, but certainly enjoys fast ground and goes well for Hayley.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); recent outing (7 days);
Minus: middle draw;
Verdict: (43) has been in good form but not ideally drawn to take advantage here; nevertheless, a contender.
Spanish City 5-8-7 (91) Dr 15
4 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (750 u) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 7/1 0.5l dht 2/18 off 91
tracked leaders centre, headway over 2f out, led overall inside final 2f, soon ridden, kept on under pressure inside final furlong, headed inside final 100 yards, just held
Twice a winner over this trip this season and not beaten far by Ripp Orf (-5) in the Victoria Cup here in May; another solid effort lto when dead-heating for 2nd with Shady McCoy (+6) behind Burnt Sugar (+8) in the Bunbury; likely to go close again off the same mark with Burnt Sugar carrying a 3lbs penalty, although like Ripp Orf has to overcome a central draw.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (C); form run lto (14 days);
Minus: middle draw;
Verdict: (41) has been in good from and Bunbury effort makes him a contender.

Plenty of past trends to go on, perhaps the most surprising being that the past 11 renewals have all been won by 4yo or 5yo horses. Add to that that they had all had at least 4 outings in the current season, the latest within 40 days, plus had all previously won over 7f and you have a solid basis for consideration. I could add that a run in a handicap at the current season’s Royal Ascot or Newmarket July meeting also featured prominently. While a low or high draw was to be preferred, horses have been successful form the middle too, so perhaps that’s of lesser importance.

Among those that didn’t make my shortlist were the 6yos Flaming Spear and Burnt Sugar, both of whom had weight considerations too, while it’s been so long since Firmament won that another 6yo bit the dust. Shady McCoy ran well in the Bunbury, but he is an 8yo and I just have to pass. Finally getting to my shortlist, I have to wonder about the 3yo Il Primo Sole; yes, 3yos have won in the past, but this will be his first tout against older horses and I might just pass. Makzeem has a bunch more weight than he carried last year and while he’s improved, I have to prefer the chances of Ripp Off and Spanish City and in the believe that Spanish City may still be improving take him to outpoint Ripp Orf and perhaps Il Primo Sole.

martinkil
Posts: 1011
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 28th July

Postby martinkil » Sat Jul 28, 2018 12:27 pm

On the going front
Culturati won on soft at York
Flying Pursuit won it on GS last year so of the Easterby's I might go for that one although Golden Apollo has won on GS

deanmcclorey
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:29 am

Re: Saturday 28th July

Postby deanmcclorey » Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:45 am

Hi folks, just new to this? Does there be no cards for Sunday racing? On my screen the cards are still for Saturday?

martinkil
Posts: 1011
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 28th July

Postby martinkil » Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:55 am

Try refreshing - they are there


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