Friday 3rd August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday 3rd August

Postby Devasteve » Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:51 am

One of the better handicaps of the meeting, plus more importantly one I’ve had time to look at. Let’s hope I’ve done a better job of studying things than I have done of late, plus there’s been no violent change in the going!

Goodwood 15.00 Cl 2 Hcap 934 (108) 8f gd – 20 Run

Last year – 934 (106) sf – 17 ran
Master The World 6/1 6-9-7 (103) Dr 3 by 0.75l from Tony Curtis 14/1 4-9-6 (102) Dr 6
Masham Star 12/1 3-8-8 (97) Dr 18 was 3.55l 6th
Mythical Madness 50/1 6-9-5 (101) Dr 20 was 3.61l 9th

Original Choice 4-9-2 (99) Dr 17
31 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (470 u) 10f gd Good 9/1 1.25l 3/15 off 97
mid-division, switched left 3f out, headway over 1f out, went 3rd inside final furlong, kept on, not quite able to challenge
Just got home by a nk from Hayadh at Wetherby in early May, but possibly needed the run coming back from a break in the Coral Challenge on fast ground at Sandown at the start of last month; put in a career best here on Tuesday when finishing 3rd to Alfarris over 10f here on Tuesday; did win on gd at Thirsk in July, last year but suspect he wouldn’t want the ground to dry too much; looks to be stable second string and not ideally drawn on the higher side.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (3 days); career best lto;
Minus: high draw;
Verdict: (42) in good enough form and may have Tuesday trip at his upper limits, a possible contender dropped back in trip.
Master The World 7-9-10 (108) Dr 9
Beaten just a nk by Franklin D (-5) off 104 in 2016 renewal, and beat Tony Curtis (-1) by 0.75l in last year’s renewal off 103; runs off 5lbs higher mark today following a solid AW season this winter over further, although hasn’t shown much off lower marks than today since being switched back to turf, so questions to answer despite his love for the course.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (20 days);
Minus: up 2lbs; down in trip;
Verdict: (41) not in best of form and may find some of the younger horses a mite too swift back over this trip, so a contender with questions.
Seniority 4-9-2 (100) Dr 3
29 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1090 u) 8f gd/fm Ascot 7/1 F 4.25l 8/30 off 96
raced centre, held up towards rear, headway chasing leaders over 2f out, ridden and kept on same pace inside final furlong, not pace to challenge
Never far from the front of the market and had won twice at Chelmsford before being made favourite for the Hunt Cup at Ascot where he finished a respectable 8/30; runs off a 4lbs higher mark here, but looks to have one of the favoured lower draws plus with Ryan Moore back in the saddle today looks to be the stable’s first string ahead of Original Choice.
Plus: class (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (44 days); low draw;
Minus: going (?); course (?); up 4lbs;
Verdict: (38) likely to be close to favourite again today, but a definite contender from his low draw.
Third Time Lucky 6-8-13 (97) Dr 10
27 Jul Cl 3 Hcap (100 d) 8f sf York 7/1 2.25l 1/10 off 91
held up in rear, headway over 2f out, challenged over 1f out, led entering final furlong, ran on, ridden out
Made the most of his falling mark, plus his rider’s 7lbs claim when winning a Cl 3 at York last weekend; carries a 3lbs penalty today, although with Hanagan in the saddle is effectively 10lbs worse off today; however, has won off this mark in the past, so not entirely ignored.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (7 days);
Minus: up in class; 3lbs penalty;
Verdict: (37) will need to improve again, but a possible contender
South Seas 4-9-9 (107) Dr 13
07 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (460 u) 8f gd/fm Sand 12/1 5.5l 6/15 off 105
held up behind, driven over 2f out, ridden and stayed on into mid-division inside final furlong, never nearer
Group winner over 7f as a 2yo, but disappointed in first 2 starts at 3yo and put away for the season after being gelded in early June; missed the break on his first 2 starts at Chester in May – not the place to do that – and under the circumstances perhaps did well to get as close to the winner Baraweez as he did on each occasion; next seen in the Coral Challenge at Sandown last month, but after finally extricating himself from traffic never got close enough to challenge; suspect he needs a few lbs off, but the handicapper has gone the other way in adding 2lbs; moreover, has yet to win beyond 7f.
Plus: class (W); going (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (27 days);
Minus: distance; course (?); up 2lbs; middle draw;
Verdict: (34) a number of questions mean he’s not the strongest contender today.
Escobar 4-9-6 (104) Dr 2
07 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (460 u) 8f gd/fm Sand 9/1 1.75l 2/15 off 102
held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, ridden to chase leaders over 1f out, went 2nd and kept on inside final furlong, not reach winner
Listed winner over 7f as a 2yo when with Hugo Palmer, but just short of top class; joined current yard at the end of January and having debuted in the Victoria Cup, returned to the winner’s enclosure at the third attempt over 8f at Haydock in mid-June; not disgraced when 11/30 in the Hunt Cup and then recorded a career best when runner-up to Tigre Du Terre in the Coral Challenge at Sandown last month; has been raised 2lbs for that, but should still confirm running with South Seas who was some 4l back and yet they meet on the same terms today; looks well drawn in stall 2.
Plus: class (F); distance (W); trainer (14d) form run lto (27 days); career best lto; low draw;
Minus: going; course; up 2lbs; trainer (C 1/37)
Verdict: (34) looks to have plenty of scope and a contender if handling the slower ground.

Well, Master The World shattered the myth that older horses can’t win this, for he was the first 6yo to win in over a decade. However, I think we can return to the former proviso that it’s 3yo to 5yo horses with less than 15 hcap starts and who have already won over 8/9f we should be concentrating on. Other keys to note are that the winner has usually been placed in the first 3 in at least one of its last 2 starts, plus 9 of the last 11 renewals have been won by horses drawn 1 to 7.

Master The World is a year older, runs off a 5lbs higher mark and has not been in as good form this season, so I’ll pass on the repeat win despite his liking for the course. I’m also going to pass on the 6yo Third Time Lucky who runs off a de facto 10lbs higher mark than when winning a Cl 3 at York last weekend. Nor for that matter am I sold on South Seas who would appear to have a bit to prove that he’s back to his 2yo form. The remaining trio on my shortlist, Original Choice, Seniority and Escobar feature towards the top of both sets of my ratings, though sadly not in the same order. Original Choice tops my primary ratings, but he ran over 10f here on Tuesday and looks to be the Haggas second string, plus doesn’t have the best of the draw. So, I’ll go for Seniority to again finish ahead of Escobar as in the Hunt Cup with Original Choice perhaps managing to take third.

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Re: Friday 3rd August

Postby martinkil » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:13 am

Another "Senior" moment :) - and another winner :)

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