Saturday 4th August

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 4th August

Postby Devasteve » Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:24 am

Thanks Martin, very pleased things turned out right yesterday, so let’s see how things go today!

Goodwood 14.25 Cl 2 Hcap 623 (106) 14f gd/fm – 14 Run

Last year – 623 (106) sf – 13 ran
Soldier In Action 11/1 4-9-10 (106) Dr 2 by 0.1l from Blakeney Point 12/1 4-8-13 (95) Dr 11
My Reward 16/1 5-8-12 (95) Dr 10 was 0.9l 4th
Platitude 8/1 4-9-9 (105) Dr 7 was 5.15l 6th
Sir Chauvelin 14/1 5-9-3 (99) Dr 5 was 5.9l 7th

Walton Street 4-9-8 (104) Dr 11
22 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (560 s) 12f gd/fm Ascot 7/1 3.25l 3/17 off 104
keen, prominent, hampered over 9f out, ridden to challenge over 2f out, stayed on same pace final furlong
Lightly-raced sort (8th start) who won his first 2 starts as a 3yo, including over 11f at last year’s meeting here; had 3 starts at Meydan over the winter, winning the last at the end of February; not seen then until producing another career best when 3/17 in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot, 1l behind Sir Chauvelin (-7); has been given time to get over that and likely to improve going back up in trip.
Plus: class (W); going (F); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (43 days); career best lto;
Minus: distance; up 2f;
Verdict: (50) seems likely to improve for Ascot run and a contender going up in trip.
Melting Dew 4-9-1 (97) Dr 9
06 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (310 u) 10f gd/fm Sand 3/1 F 0.25l 1/8 off 93
soon pushed along in last pair, rapid headway on outside chasing leader halfway, led inside final 3f, headed 2f out, rallied on rails to lead again near finish
Improved in winning his last 2 starts, the latest a career best at Sandown with the runner-up going on to take the opening race of this meeting; however, he was dropped back to 10f for both those starts and today has to tackle 4f more, although did seem to stay 12f last year.
Plus: class (W); going (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (29 days); career best lto;
Minus: distance (?); course (?); up 4lbs; up 4f;
Verdict: (43) trip a question, but a contender if staying the course.
Platitude 5-9-8 (104) Dr 10
07 Jul List Stks (230 u) 16f gd/fm Sand 9/2 1.25l 2/6 off 104
held up in touch in last pair, driven over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran well on outer inside final furlong, not reach winner
Had wind surgery last September when with Stoute, and moved to current yard towards the end of May, winning over C&D on his debut for the new yard 5 days later; not disgraced on subsequent effort when runner-up in a 16f listed affair at Sandown; runs off 1lb lower mark than when 5th to Soldier In Action (+1) in last year’s renewal; interesting contender for new stable.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (28 days);
Minus: down in class;
Verdict: (42) enjoying better fortune with new yard and a possible contender.
Soldier In Action 5-9-1 (97) Dr 3
De Sousa takes the ride for the first time since the pair took last year’s renewal off a 5lbs higher mark; has shown zilch so far this season, however, so it would be very much a blind punt.
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); recent outing (35 days); down 4lbs;
Minus: no form in 8 starts this year.
Verdict: (40) no reason to consider him a strong contender.

Pacify, Watersmeet and Sir Chauvelin are others that could possibly win, but like Soldier Of Action there is no compelling reason to suggest that they’ll get the better of Walton Street, Melting Dew and Platitude who are preferred in that order.

Goodwood 15.40 Cl 2 Hcap 1556 (111) 6f gd/fm – 28 Run
3yos = 4lbs wfa allowance

Last year – 1556 (110) sf – 26 ran
Lancelot Du Lac 25/1 7-9-5 (104) Dr 15 by 0.75l Aeolus 16/1 6-9-4 (103) Dr 12
Growl 7/1 5-9-3 (109) Dr 8 was 0.87l 4th
Poyle Vinnie 28/1 7-9-0 (99) Dr 18 was 5.19l 17th

Foxtrot Lady 3-9-10 (100) Dr 9
12 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (620 s) 6f gd/fm Nwmk 8/1 0.02l 1/20 off 94
close up far side, ridden over 1f out, edged left and chased leader inside final furlong, ran on to lead final strides
Forget her only run here, as it was her debut and she was still finding out what it was all about; she has gone on well since then though, particularly this season in winning 3 of her 6 starts, the latest when putting in another career best to take a Cl 2 at Newmarket in similar conditions; has a 6lbs penalty to carry here, but likely still improving and trainer won the 2016 renewal with a similar sort.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (23 days); career best lto;
Minus: course; 6lbs penalty;
Verdict: (52) improving filly and a definite contender today.
Tis Marvellous 4-9-1 (101) Dr 5
23 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1090 u) 6f gd/fm Ascot 20/1 1l 4/28 off 99
raced towards far side, chased leaders, switched right over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, not quite going pace to challenge
Won a Gr 2 sprint in France as a 2yo, but rather disappointed as a 3yo and was gelded between seasons; had a couple of races in Meydan over the winter season and not disgraced when 5/15 to Gifted Master (+9) at Newmarket on his return in early May; followed that up with a very solid effort at Royal Ascot when 4th to Bacchus in the Wokingham; runs off a 2lbs higher mark today, but not without a chance.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (42 days);
Minus: course (?); up 2lbs;
Verdict: (41) looks to be on the up and can maybe build on his Wokingham effort, a contender.
George Bowen 6-9-6 (106) Dr 12
20 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (210 d) 6f gd/fm Ham 9/2 2.75l 1/10 off 100
mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on to lead towards finish
Has shown much improved form this year and after finishing 6th to Bacchus in the Wokingham went up to Hamilton to capture the Scottish Steward’s Cup in a career best under today’s rider; carries a 6lbs penalty for that, but this is likely to be one of his last chances in hcap class for a while.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); form run lto (15 days); career best lto;
Minus: 6lbs penalty;
Verdict: (41) in fine form at present and a contender.
Gifted Master 5-9-11 (111) Dr 25
Looked to be carrying on last season’s form when a narrow winner in a career best at Newmarket in May – Tis Marvellous (-9) was 1.5l back in 5th; however, was only 4th to The Tin Man in listed company at Windsor and then, not surprisingly, was a little outclassed in the King’s Stand Stks at Royal Ascot; this more his forte, perhaps, although
Being asked a tough question under top weight, although his rider’s claim eases that by 5lbs; however, has not been favoured by the draw as those drawn 20 and above have a poor record.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); recent outing (46 days); down in class; down 1lb;
Minus: high draw;
Verdict: (38) tough task and not the strongest contender today.
Spring Loaded 6-9-6 (106) Dr 19
14 Jul Cl 2 Hcap (620 d) 5f gd/fm Ascot 7/1 2l 1/20 off 100
raced far side, held up, headway over 2f out, switched right to challenge over 1f out, overall leader inside final furlong, ran on well
Winner of last season’s Portland Hcap at Doncaster, could well have been much more closely involved in the finish of the Wokingham on his return but for being hampered when trying to find position 2f out; made amends 3 weeks ago though when recording a career best to take a large field hcap over 5f there from Poyle Vinnie (-10); carries a 6lbs penalty for that but the return to 6f won’t faze him.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (21 days); career best lto;
Minus: course; 6lbs penalty;
Verdict: (34) on the edges of the draw, but a contender nonetheless.
Silent Echo 4-8-13 (99) Dr 11
23 Jun Cl 2 Hcap (1090 u) 6f gd/fm Ascot 20/1 2.5l 5/28 off 101
slowly into stride, raced centre to near side, slowly into stride, headway chasing leaders over 2f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, not quite pace to challenge
Moved over from the Charlton yard between seasons and has shown his liking for his new surroundings having won twice at Windsor before putting in a solid effort to finish 5th in the Wokingham; has a habit of being slowly away, however, which makes life harder, but runs off a 2lbs lower mark here.
Plus: class (F); going (F); distance (W); recent form run (42 days); down 2lbs;
Minus: course (?); trainer (C – 1/22)
Verdict: (34) worries about his tendency to be slowly away make him a contender with questions today.

With winners in the 3yo to 6yo range, there’s not a lot there, but a previous win in Cl 2 and over 6f are pluses, as are some decent form within the last 40 days or so. When it comes to the draw, stalls7 to 19 have been the most productive, while those from 20 upwards seem to be problematical.

The one I may rue most in omitting from my shortlist is Growl who runs off a 10lbs lower mark than when finishing 4th in last year’s renewal; he was also 4th in 2016. However, his win record is a little sparse, plus he would prefer softer ground, so he didn’t make the cut this time round. Neither does last year’s winner Lancelot Du Lac who is now an 8yo and hasn’t shown much the past twice. Another to fail was Glenamoy Lad who is making his seasonal return, and not even De Sousa in the saddle can persuade me to overlook that. Gifted Master did make the list, but while he is a talented sprinter at his best, I fear both weight and draw have contrived to lessen his chances and thus I’ll strike him from the list. It’s not passed my notice that 8 of the past 11 winners had run in the Wokingham and Tis Marvellous, Silent Echo, George Bowen and Spring Loaded all come that route this year, although which order they’ll finish today is another matter. For the winner though, I have to side with the 3yo filly Foxtrot Lady who looks as if she may prove to be very useful indeed. So in this annual cavalry charge I’m going for Foxtrot Lady from Spring Loaded and perhaps George Bowen.

Doncaster 16.05 Cl 2 Hcap 125 (99) 10f gd – 10 Run

Last year – 125 (98) gd – 8 ran
Erik The Red 11/4 Jt F 5-9-10 (94) Dr 6 by 1.5l from Another Eclipse 7/2 3-8-5 (84) Dr 10

Gulf Of Poets 6-9-13 (99) Dr 10
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto;
Minus: course (?); up 1lb; up 2f;
Verdict: (48) the drying ground looks to be against him and while he can go well fresh, not the strongest contender today.
Erik The Red 6 -9-13 (99) Dr 2
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down 1lb;
Minus: 315-day break;
Verdict: (45) 5lbs higher than when taking last year’s renewal and hasn’t run since September, so not a strong contender for me.
Aasheq 5-9-10 (96) Dr 7
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (14 days); career best (lto)
Minus: course (?); up 1lb;
Verdict: (45) in fine form of late and a strong contender.

Very rushed look at this and a little wary about Vale Do Sol might be, but would have to go with Aasheq from Gulf Of Poets.

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