Saturday 16th March

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 16th March

Postby Devasteve » Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:23 am

Finally found some educated horses last week that could read the script, well nor quite perfectly as Martin did point out! Hope you all had a decent Cheltenham, I did miss it, but unfortunately had no option. Just the one race today, as the Kempton chase I looked at had far more questions than answers for me I’m afraid. So in the hopes I’ve managed to sort the Midlands National field into some sort of order, fingers for the crossing of!

Uttoxeter 15.35 Listed Hcap Chase 844 (144) 34f hv– 20 Run

Last year – 703 (144) hv – 18 ran
Regal Flow 16/1 11-10-12 (135) by10l Milansbar 16/1 11-11-3 (142)
Ballymalin 14/1 8-10-12 (130) was 14.5l 3rd
Get On The Yager 9/1 8-11-8 (140) was 29.25l 9th
Back To The Thatch 15/2 6-10-11 (129) was PU after 16th

Chef D’Oeuvres 8-10-6 (134)
16 Feb Gr 3 Hcap Chase (570 u) 28.5f gd Hayd 12/1 3l 2/15 off 130
prominent, lost place 3rd, rallied 5 out, soon chasing leaders, every chance 3 out, wandered under pressure next, rallied again last, no extra towards finish
Transferred from the Greatrex stable in October and returned to winning ways on his third start for his new yard when recording a career best when beating Back To The Thatch (+8) and Dell’ Arca (+22) on sf at Haydock towards the end of December; raised 11lbs for that, he was by no means disgraced when setting yet another career best in finishing runner-up to Robinsfirth in the Gr 3 Grand National trial there last month; has been raised another 4lbs, but likely still improving and no surprise were he to go well.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); trainer (14d); form run lto (28 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: course; up 4lbs;
Verdict: (41) improving stayer who meets many past trends and a contender.
Ballydine 9-10-12 (140)
19 Jan Gr 2 Hcap Chase (430 u) 25.5f gd/sf Hayd 13/2 4.25l off 140
prominent, pressed leader after 5 out, every chance when blundered 3 out, soon ridden and one pace, no impression from next
Lightly-raced sort who gained his only success to date under Sean’s ride at Sandown in February last year; improvement from race to race this year recording a career best when 3/11 to Wakanda in the Peter Marsh at Haydock when last seen in January; runs off the same mark today and welcomes Sean back in the saddle, plus should be well suited by the going.
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (F); trainer (course); form run lto (56 days); career best lto; down in class;
Minus: course (?); trainer (14d 0/15);
Verdict: (40) meets most of the past trends and a contender.
American 9-11-12 (154)
01 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (1420 u) 26f sf Newb 15/2 PU/12 off 154
never going and well in rear, tailed off and pulled up before 12th
Showed much promise in his first two seasons over fences, even making the Gold Cup field last year; however, was never in it on his return in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in December and has not been seen since.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); course (W); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down in class;
Minus: no form run this season; 105-day break; weight;
Verdict: (40) too many negatives to be considered a strong contender.
Milansbar 12-10-9 (137)
02 Mar Cl 2 Hcap Chase (190 d) 26f gd/sf Newb 14/1 9l 4/11 off 138
behind, driven and kept on from 2 out, went modest 4th and mistake last
Runner-up to Regal Flow (-5) off a 5lbs higher mark in last year’s renewal before going on to finish 5th in the Aintree version under today’s jockey; has taken time to find his feet this season but better effort at Newbury a fortnight ago and has a great record here..
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); form run lto (14); down 1lb;
Minus: up in class; age;
Verdict: (37) a number of negatives, but possibly a contender for the frame.
Ms Parfois 8-11-4 (146)
01 Dec Gr 3 Hcap Chase (1420 u) 26f sf Newb 8/1 40l 6/12 off 146
chased leaders, pushed along in well held 3rd before 4 out, weakened next, finished tired
Useful novice last season finishing runner-up in the Mildmay Novices at Aintree in April; had wind surgery over the summer but finished tired on her return in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in December and has not been seen since.
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (F); trainer (14d); trainer (C); down in class;
Minus: course; no form run this season; 105-day break;
Verdict: (35) break a worry, as is just the single start this year and not the strongest contender with no form on hv.
Arthur’s Gift 8-10-10 (138)
18 Feb Cl 3 Hcap Chase (110 d) 24.5f sf 4/1 F 5l 1/13 off 130
mid-division, headway 7th, 2nd from 3 out, led last, edged right flat, soon clear, stayed on well
Just the three chase starts and got off the mark at Carlisle last month in fine style; has been raised 8lbs for that, plus is up two classes but stable does well with this type.
Plus: going (F); distance (F); trainer (C); form run lto (26 days); career best lto;
Minus: class (?); course (?); up 8lbs; up 2 classes;
Verdict: (34) unexposed over fences, but not totally ignored and a possible contender.

Last year’s winner Regal Flow was the first winner aged over 9yo in the past 15 years; based on this season’s showing I can’t see him repeating. I’m also wary that only 2 winners have carried more than 10-12 in that period, while the last 12 winners had all run had 2 to 5 season runs, the last within 8 weeks. That’s enough reasons to remove American and Ms Parfois from my shortlist, while age and weight were enough to ensure Folsom Blue never made it. Pipe has a good record in the race, but the yard is out of form, plus Dell’ Arca doesn’t appeal on hv. I may be wrong on passing on Back To The Thatch too, based on his running behind Chef D’Oeuvres at Haydock in mid-February and him being 7lbs better off today. However, the winner has put in an improved performance in higher class since.

From those left on my shortlist, Chef D’Oeuvres, Ballydine, Milansbar and Arthur’s Gift, Milansbar would appear to be bucking the odds. However, with the heavy ground there could be an upset and I would not be in the least surprised if he was thereabouts at the finish, especially with him twice finishing runner-up in the race, plus the week his rider has had. Inexperience tempers me against Arthur’s Gift though, so I’m going for Chef D’Oeuvres from Ballydine with Milansbar my less rational selection to make the frame.

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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 16th March

Postby martinkil » Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:24 pm

My "dirty filter" of must have won a chase on Soft/heavy over 3m2f+ and using your 9yo or younger carrying 10-12 or less gives two
- Chef D’Oeuvres and Get On The Yager and for the tricast I'll throw in Smooth Stepper - :)

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