Thursday 16th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Thursday 16th May

Postby Devasteve » Thu May 16, 2019 12:01 pm

Not too shabby yesterday even if I did err in deciding the winner was not a form horse based on his last run in Group class – I shall have to revisit (when time permits) to decide if it was my error (likely) or he was just one CF that beat the odds. See how today goes, although this looks far more tricky!

York 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (101) 8f gd/fm – 18 Run (14 at best)

Last year – 311 (102) gd/fm – 10 ran
Afaak 9/2 4-9-1 (97) Dr 6 by 1.5l from Love Dreams 16/1 4-9-4 (100) Dr 9

Hayadh 6-9-0 (91) Dr 4
14/1 Cons 6* AB 115* Lto 120* SF 99 Rat 111*
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (250) 8f gd Thir 14/1 8-12 0.75l 1/16 off 88 – 97
chased leaders, every chance over 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well
20 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (120) 7f gd Muss 11/2 9-3 4.5l (82) off 89 – 90
tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, went 2nd entering final furlong, kept on, no impression on winner
02 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (80) 7f gd/fm Muss 8/1 9-3 1.75l 3/10 off 90 – 93
chased leaders on outside, pushed along and every chance 2f out, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, edged right and kept on towards finish
Originally with Gosden but after a 27-month break moved to his current yard at the start of last year; had a busy season winning 2 of his 14 starts over 7f at Wolverhampton in February and Musselburgh in October; ran on well inside the final furlong to finish 3rd on his return over 7f at Musselburgh at the start of April; unable to make any impression on the winner when runner-up back over the same C&D later in the month despite efforts from 2f out, with Commander Han (+1) 1.25l back in 3rd; upped in class to tackle the 8f Thirsk Hunt Cup at the start of the month, but down in weight and ran out a comfortable winner from Commander Han (+1); rises in class again today and has a couple of lbs more to carry; not at the front of the betting forecast, but consistent enough and among the higher ability group, plus comes from one of the better races lto, although mixed ratings support; conditions look to suit and not dismissed as a contender.

Just Hiss 6-8-13 (90) Dr 15 N/R
12/1* Cons 10* AB 110* Lto 200* SF 103* Rat 109
27 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (200) 8f sf Hayd 20/1 8-7 3.75l 3/11 off 90 – 92
chased leaders, soon led, headed over 2f out, kept on same pace
3rd Last: Cl 2 Hcap (190) 8f gd York 9/1 8-7 1.5l 1/16 off 86 – 94
made virtually all, ridden and edged left over 1f out, stayed on well and in command inside final furlong
Usually runs well here and improved his record when winning here on gd back in October; reasonable return at Haydock last month but is up in class and carries more weight on faster ground today; one of most consistent in the forecast, plus among the highest ability group and comes from one of the better races lto, plus has some ratings support; best form has been on gd or softer, however, and may find it faster than he likes today, plus likes to front run and may find it hard from stall 15; this reservations exist and he’s a contender with questions perhaps.

Love Dreams 5-9-4 (95) Dr 11
9/1* Cons 13# AB 109 Lto 310* SF 101* Rat 111*
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (310) 7f gd Good 4/1 9-4 1l 2/11 off 93 – 101
led, clear over 1f out, ridden headed and not pace of winner final 125 yards
09 Mar Cl 3 Hcap (90) 7f AW Kemp 7/1 9-6 0.75l 2/11 off 92 – 99
chased leaders, went 2nd over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, lost 2nd inside final furlong, regained 2nd last strides but not pace of winner
Runner-up in last year’s renewal off a 5lbs higher mark, though carrying the same weight as today, he has yet to win beyond 7f ; last win came over 7f on fast ground at Goodwood last May carrying 9-7, being dropped in class following his effort here; disappointed in higher class thereafter, however, often over 8f, including when carrying 9-7 in a (530) hcap here after twice being dropped in class; down the field in a couple of Meydan hcaps at the start of the year, but reasonable effort over7f at Kempton in March, and then a decent effort upped in class over 7f at Goodwood 12 days ago in a lead up to this; consistent, though not among the 3 best in the forecast, marginally outside the highest ability group, but comes from one of the better races lto and has ratings support; main worry that he has yet to win at 8f, though with the same weight as last year in a supposedly weaker race, he must be considered a contender.

Beringer 4-9-8 (99) Dr 7
5/1* Cons 13# AB 85 Lto 160* SF 98 Rat 110
18 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (160) 8f gd/fm Nwmk 4/1 9-5 0.1l 1/8 off 96 - 104
held up in 5th on far rail, headway tracking leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead final 150 yards, held on, all out
30 Mar Cl 2 Hcap (620) 8f gd Donc 9/1 8-13 3l 3/19 off 96 – 101
held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, chased leaders inside final furlong, ran on
Having been gelded and has wind surgery between seasons, was generally progressive last season at around 10f, winning at Leicester and Sandown in June and then nit being disgraced here and at Newmarket and Goodwood over the rest of the summer; returned with a fine effort against a handicap blot in the Lincoln and then didn’t really need to improve much when dropped in class over 8f at Newmarket in mid-April; back up in class today and carries 3lbs more, but likely to run his race; consistent, though not among the 3 best in the forecast and not among the highest ability group, although comes from one of the better races lto; however, no ratings support either and perhaps the 3lbs extra weight will prove too much back up in class again.

Mutafani 4-9-0 (91) Dr 10
7/1* Cons 5* AB 65 Lto 50 SF 90 Rat 95
12 Jun Cl 5 Nov (50) 8f gd/fm Thir 2/7 F 9-9 4l 1/10 off 85 – 90
made all, pushed along over 2f out, clear from over 1f out, easily
Unraced as 2yo, and won two of his four starts as a 3yo in novice events at Chelmsford and Thirsk and looked mighty impressive in doing so; however, has not been seen since last June, plus the opposition is somewhat more substantial; he may well win, but while he is one of the consistent horses from the forecast, he’s not among the highest on ability or coming from the most valuable races lto, nor does he have any ratings support; in that case I have to pass.

Hortzadar 4-9-5 (96) Dr 18
7/1* Cons 10* AB 55 Lto 60 SF 86 Rat 109
22 Apr Cl 4 Hcap (60) 7f gd/fm Red 4/7 F 9-8 1.25l 1/8 off 86 – 95
tracked leaders, driven to lead over 1f out, ridden out inside final furlong, kept on well
15 Apr Cl 4 Hcap (60) 8f gd/fm Pont 12/1 9-6 8l 1/9 off 81 – 100
in touch, headway over 1f out, led approaching final furlong, ran on, comfortable
French import who swiftly showed the handicapper to be in error with his assessment by winning a pair of minor hcaps at ease on his debut for his new yard last month; with the handicapper having now raised him a further 10lbs we should find out today whether he has yet got his measure; consistent in the forecast, but has nothing else going for him and has yet to show the class to challenge at this level. Could win, but have to pass.

Commander Han 4-8-13 (90) Dr 9
16/1 Cons 7* AB 54 Lto 250* SF 95 Rat 111*
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (250) 8f gd Thir 14/1 8-13 0.75l 2/16 off 89 – 96
led, headed inside final furlong, no extra
20 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (120) 7f gd Muss 17/2 9-4 5.75l 3/10 off 90 – 88
mid-division, switched left and headway over 2f out, went 3rd inside final furlong, kept on, no impression on winner
Just a novice win on the AW at Chelmsford in February last year, but has shown he acts on turf with his latest pair of starts at Musselburgh and Thirsk where each time he finished behind Hayadh; has a 2lb pull with H for the Thirsk Hunt Cup running, but despite being consistent he’s not at the front of the betting, nor among the highest ability group, and while he comes from one of the better lto races and has some rating support he looks unlikely to record his first hcap success today.

Seeing that I’ve an initial shortlist of seven to look at, plus we have a couple of potential flies-in-the-ointment in Mutafana and Hortzadar this is definitely a race to leave well alone. However, working from the top down and hoping I’ve read things right, I’d take Hayadh from Love Dreams as the most likely, as I’m not sure the fast ground will suit Just Hiss (N/R). Of the ‘flies’, Mutafana looks the more likely given the stable.

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