Friday 17th May

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Friday 17th May

Postby Devasteve » Fri May 17, 2019 12:17 pm

Not too disappointed by yesterday’s efforts, although as has been pointed out to me, a case could have been made for the winner if making allowance for the class in which his later ‘failures’ occurred after fine efforts in the Hunt Cup and Johns Smith’s. Still, as always, it continues to be a learning process as it has been for the past 60 odd years!

York 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 187 (100) 10.5f gd/fm – 12 Run (11 at best)

Last year – 187 (99) gd/fm – 11 ran
Thundering Blue 3/1 F 5-9-0 (93) Dr 3 by 1.25l from Banditry 5/1 6-9-2 (95) Dr 8
Kyllachy Gala 33/1 5-9-1 (99) Dr 10 was 10l 8th

Lucius Tiberius 4-9-7 (100) Dr 7
8/1* Cons 13* AB 250* Lto 310* SF 89 Rat 114*
24 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (310) 10f gd Eps 7/1 9-4 5l 5/11 off 102 – 102
raced wide close up, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace
07 Apr Gr 2 Stks (670) 10f gd Long 66/10 9-0 6l 4/6 – 102
chased clear leader, driven 3f out, hard driven among those in pursuit 2f out,
kept on under pressure, lost 3rd inside final furlong, no extra late on

Last win: 12 Jul Prem Hcap (530) 10f gd/gm Leop 7/2 F 9-3 0.05l 1/12 off 101 – 107
held up, in rear at halfway, progress and switched wide over 2f out, chased in 5th entering final furlong, stayed on strongly to lead on line
Originally an O’Brien colt for whom he won three times, over 10f on fast ground, including when favourite for a Premier hcap at Leopardstown; that won him a trip to Arlington where he was totally outclassed in the Secretariat Stks; back this side of the Atlantic he finished midfield in a pair of valuable Irish hcaps (including the Irish Cambridgeshire) carrying 9-9 and 9-11, respectively; his final start was when 4/6 in the Group 3 Darley Stks at Newmarket; gelded in November, he joined the Appleby yard towards the end of March; didn’t run badly on his debut when respectable 4/6 in a Gr 2 over 10f at Longchamps in early April and then never got on terms with the leaders but finished a credible 5th with 9-4 when dropped in class in the City & Suburban at Epsom, 1.75l back of Mythical Madness (-10) ; dropped in class again today, and while he carries 3lbs more in actual weight his OR has dropped to below his last winning mark in a lower class race; consistent in the forecast, he has highest ability and comes from the most valuable race lto; mixed rating support, but dropped in class again and no doubt the class horse in the race and has to be considered a contender.

Mythical Madness 8-9-3 (96) Dr 11
12/1* Cons 7* AB 84* Lto 130* SF 103* Rat 112*
02 May Cl 2 Hcap (130) 10f AW Chelm 10/1 9-4 0.1l 1/8 off 92 -101
tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on to lead towards finish
24 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (310) 10f gd Eps 14/1 8-8 3.25l 4/11 off 92 – 96
led, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, no extra
06 Apr Cl 3 Hcap (80) 10f AW Ling 12/1 9-7 0.25l 2/5 off 90 – 96
close up, headway to chase leading pair 2f out, ridden to challenge winner inside final furlong, ran on, just held
Hadn’t won for 19 starts when just denying Big Kitten (-2) at Chelmsford a fortnight back after being dropped in class; had previously finished 1.75l ahead of Lucius Tiberias (+10) in the City & Suburban, but meets him on 4lbs worse terms today; consistent in the forecast and among the highest in ability and from one of the higher value races lto (though less than today), plus has rating support; yet back up in class today to a level he’s yet to win at and on today’s terms looks unlikely to confirm recent running with either Big Kitten or Lucious Tiberius.

UAE Prince 6-9-6 (99) Dr 8
2/1* Cons 11* AB 56 Lto 190* SF 96* Rat 112*
12 Oct Cl 2 Hcap (190) 8f gd York 7/2 F 9-6 3.75l 4/16 off 99 – 98
held up towards rear, not clear run from over 2f out until switched left and headway over 1f out, soon edged left, kept on, not reach leaders
29 Sep Cl 2 Hcap (1000) 9f gd/fm Nwmk 14/1 9-2 5l 5/33 off 88 – 101
raced centre, mid-division, headway over 1f out, chased leaders approaching final furlong, kept on well, never able to challenge
06 May Cl 2 Hcap (310) 12f gd/fm Nwmk 8/1 9-7 1.5l 2/15 off 97 – 104
in rear, headway going well from 3f out, led over 1f out, edged right and headed inside final furlong, kept on
Just the three starts last year, the pick being when 5l 5th in the Cambridgeshire under 9-2; subsequently made favourite when dropped in class over 8f here under today’s weight, but didn’t get the best of runs and could never get to the leaders; distance and ground should suit and plus goes well fresh; forecast favourite and consistent in the forecast, but not among the highest on ability, although comes from one of the more valuable races lto and on a oar with today, plus has ratings backing; a contender, although I’m not sure the strongest.

Big Kitten 4-9-0 (93) Dr 3 N/R
11/2* Cons 13* AB 49 Lto 130* SF 54 Rat 113*
02 May Cl 2 Hcap (130) 10f AW Chelm 5/2 9-2 0.1l 2/8 off 90 – 99
tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, soon led, kept on and headed towards finish
19 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (550) 12.5f AW Nwcs 5/1 8-12 6.5l 10/14 off 91 – 89
held up in rear, progress on outside 3f out, ridden well over 1f out, weakened final furlong
22 Nov Cl 4 Hcap (60) 10f AW Nwcs 7/4 F 9-5 3l 1/12 off 85 – 97
tracked leader, joined leader 3f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, flashed tail and pushed clear
Transfer from Mark Johnston last October, winning over 10f on his second start in November before being put away for the winter during which time he was gelded; returned at Newcastle in April where he was both up in class and trip and running well until weakening in the final furlong; dropped back in both class and trip he started at a shorter price than Mythical Madness (+2), but just failed to hold off the veteran; consistent in the forecast, he does not feature among those highest on ability, although does come from one of the higher value races lto, though less than today, and only has mixed rating support; meets MM on 1lb better terms today and could reverse Chelmsford running, but not necessarily the strongest contender.

Of others, I can pass on Mistiroc for while he was a good 2nd at Doncaster on his return from a spell hurdling, he was a 40/1 shot and up in class today, plus his last flat win came in August 2016. Grandee has quickly found form for his new yard winning at Newcastle at the second attempt, but that was in much lower class and his Irish 3yo form never really travelled across the Irish Sea. Society Red was a C&D winner here last June, though in lower class, and while putting in a decent effort at Pontefract in early April, failed to replicate it when dropped in class at Ripon a week or so later. Tough Remedy, meanwhile, is better at Newcastle than he is on turf. Abe Lincoln also struggles on turf, while I have distance questions for The Emperor Within.

Of my quartet, I think Mythical Madness must be the first to go, and while Big Kitten (N/R) could be an improver he is going back up in class. The lack of a clear run could have affected UAE Prince over the shorter trip here last October and he certainly has claims on his Cambridgeshire running; however, I’m far from sure he’s that short a favourite, and returning to favoured fast ground, top weight Lucius Tiberius could get off the mark for his new yard if replicating last year’s form for O’Brien. So for me, Lucius Tiberius from UAE Prince.

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