Saturday 8th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 8th June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 08, 2019 11:25 am

You will doubtless be very thankful that I gave you a break yesterday to pick your own losers. However, never fear. It’s Saturday and I’m back again with another trio (well duo plus guesses) that are likely to lose. Maybe one day we’ll get a winner again, but don’t ask me when!

Newmarket 14.45 Cl 2 Hcap 311 (94.6) 14f gd/fm – 17 Run

Last year – 311 (92.7) gd/fm – 13 ran
Amazing Red 5-9-0 (93) Dr 7 by 3.5l from Golden Wolf 7/1 4-8-10 (89) Dr 5
Fire Jet 16/1 5-8-13 (92) Dr 11 was 6l 4th
Great Hall 33/1 5-9-8 (103) Dr 4 was 14.5l 9th

Theglasgowwarrior 5-8-11 (91) Dr 11
10/1* Cons 6* AB 72 Lto 156 SF 102* Rat 114*
17 May Cl 3 Hcap (156/88.9) 12f gd/fm Ham 5/2 8-13 0.05l 1/8 off 89 – 97
held up, headway over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to lead final stride
13 May Cl 3 Hcap (93/87.2) 14f gd/fm Muss 3/1 9-9 1l 2/5 off 89 – 97*
close up in rear, headway 3f out, ridden to lead narrowly approaching final furlong, headed inside final furlong, kept on
Consistent enough handicapper whose best effort last season included being narrowly beaten in the Mallard at Doncaster off 88 and when 5/33 in the Cesarewitch off the same mark; likely needed the race when 3/6 over 12.5f at Musselburgh on his return last month but improved to record a career best when 2/5 off 89 over 14f there 10 days later carrying 9-9; equalled that performance when dropped back to 12f in a better race at Hamilton 4 days later staying on strongly to get up on the post; runs off only a 2lbs higher mark here, but with his rider’s claim will actually carry 7lbs less physical weight; yet to win at this level, but looks to have improved this year and has claims on his Mallard running; consistent within the forecast and with rating support, a contender.

What A Welcome 5-9-6 (100) Dr 10
13/2* Cons 11# AB 51 Lto 158 SF 99* Rat 111
25 May Cl 2 Hcap (158/96.2) 14f gd/fm Good 6/1 9-3 0.02 2/6 off 98 – 103*
mostly 3rd until headway on inside into 2nd well over 1f out, sustained challenge throughout final furlong, just failed
Impressive as a 4yo winning 6 of his 7 starts at up to 16f, at marks from 72 to 95; possibly needed the race at Kempton on his return in April, but put in a much better effort lto over this trip at Goodwood lto when only just failing to peg back King’s Advice (0) with Amazing Red (-3) 1l back in 3rd; has been raised 2lbs for that, but actually meets Amazing Red on 5lbs better terms, so should confirm that running; Goodwood run shows he has the ability to run at this level and while he has little support from the parameters, looks to be a contender.

Spirit Ridge 4-8-12 (92) Dr 17
6/1* Cons 8* AB 54 Lto 311* SF 96 Rat 113*
05 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/95.3) 12f gd Nwmk 100/30 9-0 3l 5/9 off 92 – 94
close up, pushed along and lost place 3f out, rallied inside final furlong
09 Oct Cl 4 Hcap (57/78.9) 12f gd Leic 5/2 9-7 0.5l 1/11 off 85 – 97*
made all, ridden and strongly pressed over 1f out, stayed on gamely to assert inside final 150 yards, won with ears pricked
Unraced at 2yo, but won 2 of 4 starts as a 3yo, including an impressive hcap debut at Leicester in October; creditable return in similar hcap to today over 12f that suggested that he could well be better suited by today’s longer trip; consistent within the forecast area and looks to be a contender.

Amazing Red 6-9-8 (102) Dr 16
14/1 Cons 15 AB 124* Lto 158 SF 92 Rat 112
25 May Cl 2 Hcap (158/96.2) 14f gd/fm Good 12/1 9-0 1l 3/6 off 102 – 106*
raced keenly, held up in rear, headway but unable to quicken when hung right over 1f out, switched left and stayed on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish, not pace to challenge
Runs off a 9lbs higher mark than when taking last year’s renewal, and looks unlikely to reverse lto running with What A Welcome on 5lbs worse terms; not a contender.

Lissitzky 4-8-5 (85) Dr 5
7/1* Cons 13 AB 113 Lto 187 SF 85 Rat 66
17 May Cl 3 Hcap (187/89.1) 14f gd/fm Nwmk 16/1 8-7 1.75l 1/10 off 81 – 91*
in rear, pushed along over 4f out, headway over 2f out, chased leaders when hung left approaching final furlong, led inside final furlong, ran on
Lightly raced but won an 11.5f novice at Windsor on his second start last October, runner-up in a similar race at Kempton the following month, but failed to see out today’s trip when upped to Cl 2 at Chelmsford in November; finished 4/5 over 12f on his return at Salisbury at the start of May, but was not beaten far; not overly supported when returned to this trip here a fortnight or so later, but proved too good for the opposition in the final furlong in recording a career best with Fire Jet (+4) 4l back in third; has been raised 4lbs for that, plus is up in class today, but ask not beyond his capability; improving sort on only seventh start and fitted with first-time cheekpieces today, and thus a possible contender.

Of others, both Red Galileo and Proschema look to have too much weight to carry, plus neither exactly impressed over 12f at York lto. The price of Melting Dew, meanwhile, is likely due to trainer and jockey, as he looked to need his return over 12f here last month, although he was promising when runner-up in a 622/100.0 over this trip at Goodwood last August.

Joining that list of discards is Amazing Red who looks unlikely to complete the double. That leaves me with a quartet to consider, Lissitzky, Spirit Ridge, What A Welcome and Theglasgowwarrior. The normal problem with trying to pick the right one, but I’m inclined to go with What A Welcome from Theglasgowwarrior and Lissitzky

Newmarket 15.55 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (95.0) 6f gd/fm – 15 Run

Last year – 162 (92.3) gd/fm – 11 ran
Gunmetal 9/2 5-9-7 (93) Dr 9 by 0.5l from Eastern Impact 7/2 F 7-9-8 (94) Dr 1

Embour 4-9-5 (93) Dr 13
7/1* Cons 5* AB 120 Lto 194* SF 96* Rat 107*
17 May Cl 2 Hcap (194/93.6) 6f gd Newb 11/2 8-10 1.25l 1/9 off 89 – 98*
held up towards rear, good headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, led well inside final furlong
04 May Cl 3 Hcap (78/87.8) 6f gd Donc 5/1 9-6 1l 3/9 off 89 – 93
held up mid-division, ridden and headway 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, took 3rd close home
Won three in a row over 5f and 6f early last season, although failed to raise his game when sent up in class here in July or in his final start at Goodwood in August; gelded between seasons and looked to need the run on his return at Windsor in early April, although returned to winning form at Kempton towards the end of the month; close third at Doncaster when dropped to Cl 3 carrying 16lbs more and then recorded a career best lto when sent back up to Cl 2 at Newbury lto against slightly weaker opposition than today; raised 4lbs for that, but carries 9lbs more physical weight today; consistent in the forecast and come from one of the stronger races lto, plus has rating support; a little worried about the rise in weight, which is more than he’s carried to victory in a hcap, but a contender.

Flavius Titus 4-9-7 (95) Dr 9
6/1* Cons 8* AB 82 Lto 311* SF 93 Rat 107*
05 May Cl 2 Hcap (311/96.1) 6f gd Nwmk 5/1 8-10 3l 3/10 off 95 – 98
close up towards stand side, headway to lead this group approaching 2f out, ridden and every chance when groups merged over 1f out, one pace and lost 2nd towards finish
16 Apr Cl 2 Hcap (162/92.2) 6f gd/fm Nwmk 8/1 9-1 0.25l 1/15 off 91 – 100*
always prominent, led over 1f out, strongly challenged throughout final furlong, held on well
Winner over 7f at both 2yo and 3yo, was gelded over the winter and has shown improved form dropped back to 6f this term; recorded a career best when winning over C&D here on his return in mid-April and when raised 4lbs found the rise in class too much to handle over C&D here early last month; faces lesser opposition today, but carries 11lbs more physical weight; has carried such weight to victory in the past, but that was off a 13lbs lower mark; nevertheless, consistent in the forecast and comes from a more valuable race, although generally lacking in support from parameters and not the strongest contender perhaps.

Wentworth Falls 7-9-7 (95) Dr 2
10/1* Cons 9* AB 74 Lto 187* SF 99* Rat 108*
15 May Cl 2 Hcap (187/95.0) 6f gd/fm York 12/1 8-12 3l 2/21 off 95 – 98
towards rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on to chase winner inside final furlong, no impression
04 May Cl 2 Hcap (124/92.8) 6f gd Donc 11/1 9-7 0.25l 2/13 off 93 – 101*
held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, soon chasing leaders, ran on closing stages
Not overly raced for his age, but hasn’t won since April 2017, and even then it was off a 3lbs lower mark; nevertheless, has been thereabouts on numerous occasions, none more so than at Doncaster in 9 in early May when recording a career best in just going down to Sir Maximilian (-1); however, the task looked to be beyond him when raised in class at York 11 days later when he could make no impression in the final furlong; runs off the same mark today, though carries the same actual weight as at Doncaster; did carry this weight, off a 3lbs lower mark, for last success; however, despite being consistent in the forecast and having ratings support, it’s hard to see him as the strongest contender.

Of others, Spanish City was campaigned over 7f last season, winning twice, and never looked like getting into the equation when returned to 6f at Epsom lto. Louie De Palma produced a career best when winning at Ascot last month, but that was only a 78/85.0 and now he rises to a 129/95.0 off a 4lbs higher mark and carrying 4lbs more actual weight. Merhoob produced a career best to beat subsequent winner Copper Knight (+2) over 5f at Chester in early May. Today, however, while his rider’s claim means he runs off a de facto 1lb lower mark, the 7yo still looks to have a lot to do.

Getting back to my trio, I prefer them in the order I’ve looked at them, Embour from Flavius Titus and Wentworth Falls.

Newmarket 17.35 Cl 2 Hcap 129 (90.6) 10f gd/fm – 11 Run (10 at best)

Last year – 162 (91.4) gd/fm – 7 ran
Aclimatise 7/2 4-8-13 (88) Dr 3 by 5l from Majeed 16/1 8-9-6 (95) Dr 2
Lunar Jet 7/1 4-8-8 (83) Dr 4 was 6.77l 5th

Infrastructure 4-8-12 (90) Dr 10
8/1* Cons 13* AB 156* Lto 162* SF 102* Rat 112*
Winner of a 156/84.8 over 12f carrying 9-1 off 83 last June; failed to impress, however, when upped in class for final pair of starts, the final at Newbury in September off 96; mark back down to 90 today, but may need the run perhaps.

Stylehunter 4-9-7 (99) Dr 4
7/2* Cons 17# AB 68* Lto 996* SF 79 Rat 112*
Won a 97/83.6 over 9f at Goodwood in August carrying 9-0 off 92; raised 8lbs for that, he was drawn on the wrong side in the Cambridgeshire where he carried 8-12 off 100, and while only finishing 11/33 was actually 2/8 in his group; fitness to be taken on trust, but has potential for improvement starting teh season off 99.

Ventura Knight 4-9-3 (95) Dr 11
4/1* Cons 20 AB 77* Lto 280* SF 104* Rat 112*
27 May Cl 2 Hcap (280/90.3) 10f gd/fm Red 25/1 9-2 3.25l 3/14 off 95 – 98
held up towards rear, good headway on outside chasing leaders over 3f out, led over 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, lost 2nd1f out, kept on same pace in 3rd
Never quite certain which version is going to turn up, but creditable effort in the Zetland last month; three times a winner last season at around 8f, the best being carrying 9-6 off 100 at Ayr in July; has never won at this trip and have to question his likelihood of doing so today.

Ayutthaya 4-8-11 (89) Dr 5
9/2* Cons 17# AB 56 Lto 118 SF 102* Rat 112*
09 May Cl 3 Hcap (118/87.6) 10.5f sf Chest 8/1 9-5 1.75l 2/13 off 88 – 95
tracked leaders, led 2f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, switched right inside final furlong, kept on one pace
Won an 8f novice at Thirsk in April last year and was gelded thereafter; twice runner-up on his return in the autumn, but showed little on his final two starts off 94; had wind operation between seasons, but was PU on his return at Pontefract in April; couldn’t have been too much wrong as has was back on course at Ripon 9 days later; best effort this term came in early May when runner-up to Mr Top Hat on sf at Chester; has been raised 1lb for that, but just wonder if today’s fast ground will suit.

Among others, cases could be made for the unexposed pair of Caradoc and Autumn War. Of the pair, I would prefer the chances of Autumn War who drops back from carrying 9-2 over 12f against similar opposition to today. having previously made a credible return over today’s trip at Doncaster.

This is a race to leave alone as there are so many questions marks, not least Infrastructure and Stylehunter making their seasonal returns, a question of distance for Ventura Knight and going for Ayutthaya. My best guesses would be Stylehunter and Autumn War in the hope one might make the frame.

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