Saturday 20th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Devasteve
Posts: 465
Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 20th June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:06 am

I’m afraid my work has precluded me from posting all week, although it has proved a profitable Ascot and this is probably the tail of the dog. Still, for what it’s worth I’ll put it up!

Ascot 16.10 Cl 2 Hcap 485 (100.1) 6f gd/sf – 24 Run (22 in fact)

Bielsa 5-9-5 (101) Dr 3 (93.3)
’19 record: 3/0/4
25/10/19 Cl 2 Hcap (121/91.4) 6f hv Donc 9-4 5/1 1/12 1.25 l off 93 – 84.3
led, headed halfway, prominent, ked approaching final furlong, ridden and ran on
Plus: class (W); distance (W); form run lto;
Minus: going (?); course (?); 239-day break; up 8lbs (OR); up 1lb (wt);
Verdict: won on sf in October as a 3yo, and again in early season as a 4yo; won hcap debut later in the season and then came failure in the Portland on gd/fm; bounced back a month later at Doncaster taking a less classy affair in fine style; raised 8lbs for that and has a long break to contend with, plus is drawn in stall 3; it’s not impossible to win from a low draw, but not as easy and making his season debut today he’ll need to improve.
Highland Dress 4-9-1 (97) Dr 17 (94.4)
’19 record: 1/0/3 ’20 record: 2/1/3
05/06/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/90.5) 6f gd/fm Nwmkt 9-4 9/4 F 1/8 1.75 l off 91 – 81.4
always prominent, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well
Plus: distance (W); form run lto (15 days); down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); going (?); course (?); up 6lbs wt (OR); up in class;
Verdict: Irish import where he won over 7f first time out; moved to Archie Watson yard this year and got off the mark in March; followed up at Newmarket earlier in the month; raised 6lbs for that impressive win and rises in class again; an improving 4yo, but this is entirely a different test.
Summerghand 6-9-5 (101) Dr 14 (104.2)
’19 record: 1/7/10 ’20 record: 0/1/5
05/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/98.4) 6f gd/fm Nwmkt 9-2 8/1 2/11 1.35 l off 100 – 95.2
held up in rear, good headway and switched right over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong, went 2nd final 100 yds, not reach winner
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: going (?); up 1lb (OR); up 3lbs (wt);
Verdict: put up some valiant efforts last year, put unlike the year previous only success came on the final outing at Wolverhampton; in the Gulf Jan/Feb. but better effort on his return at Newmarket and 2nd to Tinto (same) with Recon Mission, Gulliver, Dazzling Dan further back; actually meets T on worse terms with the claim.
Tinto 4-9-9 (105) Dr 11 (108.3)
‘19 record: 3/8/15 ’20 record: 1/0/3
05/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/98.4) 6f gd/fm Nwmkt 9-2 40/1 1/11 1.25 l off 100 – 98.3
chased leader, led halfway, clear over 1f out, ridden and ran on well
Plus: class (W); going (F); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (15 days);
Minus: up 5lbs (OR); up 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: rose 23lbs in the weights last year including a C&D win here off 96, and hasn’t stopped improving by the looks of it; had several of these trailing when winning at that start of the month and raise is offset by his rider’s claim; not without chances.

Finally caught up with last handicap of the week, but very wary because there’s not many had a run. The favourite is one that hasn’t, plus is drawn low and that has not been the placed to be this week, thus reluctantly I’ll have to pass him over. Jacks Point is a 7f horse and as such I don’t think he’s likely to win, especially from stall 1. Summerghand is drawn well enough, but never quite manages to get the win and I think it’ll be a case of close but no cigar again. Highland Dress has improved immensely since he came over from Ireland, but he’s never run in this class before, so he’s a bit of a question mark. And that leaves Tinto, who had several of these behind him at Newmarket, and with the swop to a 5lbs-claimer is in fact not going up in the weights. So my very tentative pick is Tinto from perhaps Highland Dress and Summerghand again proving not quite good enough. (Of course, if I’ve got the side wrong, Jacks Point may well hang on in there from Bielsa!)

crispian
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:54 pm

Re: Saturday 20th June

Postby crispian » Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:28 pm

after the event ; 4.10 ascot ,using patternform and looking back 2 years plus the 18/1 winner comes top in the "speed" and "ran to" columns , these figures are tremendous if only i knew how to use them before the event .well done martinkil .

martinkil
Posts: 1669
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 20th June

Postby martinkil » Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:20 am

Went back and did the whole meeting - Turf - 24m+ - has to be top on speed and Ran-to - must be clear top rated in at least one.
Just 4 winners from 18 sels but it included 18/1 and 33/1
Only Hcaps then 2 from 5 with one other placed
I'm sure there would be plenty of fallow years though

2020-06-20 Ascot 1:15 - More Beautiful [18] - unpl - G2
2020-06-20 Ascot 1:50 - Qaader [4] - 2nd 3/1 - G2
2020-06-20 Ascot 3:00 - Pinatubo [2] - 2nd 11/8 - G1
2020-06-20 Ascot 3:35 - The Tin Man [8] - unpl - G1
2020-06-20 Ascot 4:10 - Hey Jonesy [10] - won 18/1 (hcap)


2020-06-19 Ascot 2:25 - Eye Of Heaven [5] - unpl - G2
2020-06-19 Ascot 3:00 - Defoe [5] - 3rd 6/1 - G2
2020-06-19 Ascot 4:10 - Berkshire Rocco [2] - 2nd 3/1 - G2
2020-06-19 Ascot 4:40 - Scarlet Dragon [12] - won - 33/1 (hcap)


2020-06-18 Ascot 3:00 - Modern News [2] - unpl - Listed
2020-06-18 Ascot 3:35 - Stradivarius [2] - won 4/5 - G1
2020-06-18 Ascot 4:40 - African Dream [14] - unpl (hcap)


2020-06-17 Ascot 1:50 - Juan Elcano [3] - unpl - G3
2020-06-17 Ascot 2:25 - Kipps [12] - 2nd - 9/2 - (hcap)
2020-06-17 Ascot 4:10 - Chief Little Hawk [2] - unpl - Listed
2020-06-17 Ascot 4:40 - Hochfeld [4] - unpl (hcap)

2020-06-16 Ascot 1:50 - Mustashry [5] - unpl - G1
2020-06-16 Ascot 3:35 - Battaash [10] - won 5/6 - G1

martinkil
Posts: 1669
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 20th June

Postby martinkil » Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:36 am

2019 not so good for the 4 handicaps (no consolations)


2019-06-18 Ascot 5:00 - Fun Mac [8] - 4th - 11/1

2019-06-20 Ascot 5:00 - Victory Command [3] - 6th - 50/1

2019-06-21 Ascot 5:35 - Spark Plug [7] - unpl

2019-06-22 Ascot 5:00 - Sir Maximilian [31] - unpl

That said the 6th in the britannia would have been paid 1/5 odds ew by some bookies

martinkil
Posts: 1669
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Saturday 20th June

Postby martinkil » Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:57 am

For a bit of fun we'll see how it does at a normal turf meeting


2020-06-21 Leopardstown (IRE) 3:10 - Atlas - 8/1 PP - 1/5 first 5 BOG
2020-06-21 Leopardstown (IRE) 4:40 - Santorini Sun - 16/1 Coral - 1/5 first 5 BOG
2020-06-21 Leopardstown (IRE) 5:45 - Settle For Bay - 25/1 Coral - 1/5 first 4 BIG

2020-06-21 Redcar 12:45 - Hurstwood - 25/1 b365 - 1/4 first 3
2020-06-21 Redcar 3:15 - Arbalet - 2/1 b365 - 1/4 first 3


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