What is form?

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
Bow855
Posts: 17
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:39 pm

What is form?

Postby Bow855 » Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:28 am

What is form?

I've been using patternform for a while now and when first started out learning about the facts about trading and also picking winners, I've always heard form being mentioned as a big thing to consider so what is it?

Last run?
Last 3 runs?
Last run on going?
Last run at distance?

Now about 3/4 years later I still dont know ha ha, I've had my fair share of bets some success and most fail but this factor in a race I'm still slightly me me wonder, a horse that has been increased in rating maybe ?

What is form?

Also just to add I've tried all of the above to pick winners and all successful at one point or another just seems to be lucky at the right time, which would bring me to another topic self destruct but for another time lol

martinkil
Posts: 1669
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: What is form?

Postby martinkil » Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:54 pm

Form - the 64,000 dollar question.

Form is of course the generic term for data connected to a runners previous runs.

I expect your real question is which are the important elements of form study, and which have the most significant effect of future results.

When you find out, I do trust you'll let me know :)

martinkil
Posts: 1669
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: What is form?

Postby martinkil » Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:57 pm


LoveWinners
Posts: 815
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:02 am

Re: What is form?

Postby LoveWinners » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:00 pm

as the boss stated - Form is basically a historic record but i think you mean IN FORM as you noted recent circumstance ie last run or last run under certain conditions.


The term being inform generally means running well against current HC mark or for non handicaps running well consistently.

Looking at your examples in the OP i think its clear why you would have hit or miss results

Looking back for previous last run in any circumstance wouldn't be enough to succeed imo. Look at overall form (record) and see patterns to tell if a horse is likely to repeat a figure is a better approach than looking at a fixed filter.

For example trip handicapping allows for so called bad last runs to be readjusted (up or downgrading) to fair runs or even good runs despite the figure achieved on ran to or speed.

look a horse profiling to identify hit and miss runners overall, Ie handicap ceilings , trip preferences , pace preferences Going preferences , sp indicators and so on.

for example a good LTO figure is worthless without context if we see a horse ran well lto and back it blind and we are expect it to repeat that figure and it does then how easy would it be to find winners for EVERYONE? it would be the most overly backed horse witch equates negative value.


A horse could have run a dominant LTO figure 10 days ago but what if that horse had a previous break of 70+ days and has a clear preference of going well fresh? is it a bet because it was good 10days ago and now runs after a sub optimal break?


Finding a single filter for denoting a form horse cannot be used and if it could then it would be worthless...Always use your own way to find an edge but remember as most recent runs regardless of horse profile are highly likely to be the most used angle for casual punters then prices are too simple to negate an edge long term for the layers.

GMBing
Posts: 65
Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2015 8:59 am

Re: What is form?

Postby GMBing » Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:04 pm

In addition to the wise advice above the other factor to consider is the market.
Only a fool would believe any horse could never win or any horse is a cert.
So the secret is to find more winners than their implied probability.
e.g. if over 10 races you find 4 even money winners, your bank is on the road to a rapid downward spiral.
If in the other hand over 10 races you find one 12/1 winner then your bank will start to grow.
So form and price cannot be separated it is the balancing of both.

Bow855
Posts: 17
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:39 pm

Re: What is form?

Postby Bow855 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:18 am

Thanks very much for all your advice everyone I've been abit busy so only replying now,

Horse profiling and market value sounds the best way to go, going forward I can remember as I never write anything down a strategy I had last year with some success

13 mths
Going eg. If good then GS - GF
Exact distance
Last run
Ran to

Then I check if the rating has gone up or down so if a horse rated say 60 and has stayed the same or went up then its considered this is in handicap races only.

Check it out and see what yous think sometimes no selections at all then others 2-3 selections

Thanks very much again the advice is much welcomed I'm going to do my homework on this good luck


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