Saturday 27th June

Any comments on today's racing. Please don't just put in selections ... please add some reason why you think a runner will win
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Joined: Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:29 am

Saturday 27th June

Postby Devasteve » Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:00 am

Not going too well as yet, but maybe the Northumberland Plate will change my luck,

Newmarket 13.30 Cl 2 Hcap 97 (94.0) 7f gd/fm – 9 Run

Arigato 6-8-4 (87) Dr 8 (87.8)
’19 record: 1/1/8 ’20 record: 1/1/2
18/06/20 Cl 4 Hcap (78/70.0) 7f sf Nwmkt 9-1 2/1 F 1/5 9.5 l off 79 – 63.8
slow into stride, tracked leader after 1l, led 2f out, edged left and pushed clear final furlong, comfortable
Plus: going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (9 days); minus 11lbs (wt);
Minus: class; up 8lbs (OR); up 2 classes;
Verdict: way he won at Newmarket suggests be belongs above Cl 4, but he’s never won above Cl 3 before and an 8lbs rise in the weights ain’t going to help.
Breath Of Air 4-8-6 (89) Dr 1 (100.4)
’19 record: 0/1/6 ’20 record: 1/0/1
12/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/87.4) 7f gd Newb 8-10 5/1 1/5 1.25 l off 85 – 78.4
raced keenly, made all, ridden and strongly pressed inside final furlong, stayed on to assert last 150yds
Plus: class (W); distance (W); course (F); form run lto (15 days); down 4lbs (wt);
Minus: going; up 4lbs (OR);
Verdict: liked the way he stayed on under pressure at Newbury lto and with only a 4lbs rise in the weights may well double it up.
Arbalet 5-8-7 (90) Dr 4 (102.3)
’19 record: 0/0/8 ’20 record: 0/1/2
21/06/20 Cl 3 Hcap (67/85.8) 7f gd Red 9-4 13/8 F 2/12 0.25 l off 90 – 81.3
prominent, led inside final furlong, soon headed, ran on
Plus: class (F); going (W); distance (W); form run lto (6 days); down 11lbs (wt);
Minus: course; up in class;
Verdict: quick return and escapes any rise for his 2nd at Redcar; however, that was only a Cl 3 and he has yet to make the frame in three tries at Newmarket.
Blown By The Wind 4-9-7 (104) Dr 2 (109.8)
’19 record: 1/2/9 ’20 record: 1/0/2
06/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/96.8) 7f gd/fm Nwmkt 9-2 6/1 1/8 0.5 l off 100 – 102.8
tracked leaders, led 2f out, ridden out
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); down 2lbs (wt);
Verdict: last race at Ascot lost at start, but looks to have a chance on his victory over C&D the time before last,

Assuming he gets off to a level start, Blown By The Wind should be able to give weight to this field. Following him home I’ll go for Breath Of Air and Arbalet.

Newcastle 15.35 Cl 2 Hcap 249 (92.9) 16.5f – 20 Run (18 at best)

Last year – 924 (102.1) AW – 19 Ran
Who Dares Wins 12/1 7-9-1 (101) Dr 11 by 0.1 l Dubawi Fifty 14/1 6-9-0 (100) Dr 13
Cosmelli 33/1 6-8-10 (96) Dr 1 2.1 l 5th
Kings Advice 5/1 5-9-1 (101) Dr 18 was 2.35 l 6th

Australis 4-8-2 (86) Dr 12 (96.4)
’19 record: 1/4/9 ’20 record: 1/0/1
09/06/20 Cl 4 Hcap (47/82.3) 14f AW Wolv 9-3 5/2 F 1/11 0.5 l off 81 – 70.4
tracked leader until halfway, handy 3rd on inside, 2nd again1f out, led inside final furlong, stayed on
Plus: going (W); form run lto (18 days); down 15lbs (wt);
Minus: class (?); distance (?); course (?); up 5lbs (OR); up 2 classes; up distance;
Verdict: enough shown as a 3yo to promise improvement at 4yo; duly won over 14f at Wolverhampton beating Caravan Of Hope (+4) by 0.5l; should confirm that running but is a facing different class of opposition today; could well, prove up to it, but not at all certain.
Smart Champion 5-8-5 (89) Dr 7 (109.1)
’19 record: 0/1/3 ’20 record: 1/2/4
16/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (226/93.1) 20f gd Ascot 8-11 22/1 4/19 1.5 l off 87 – 86.1
towards rear, ridden 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on, not reach leaders
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto (11 days); down 6lbs (wt);
Minus: up 2lbs (OR); down in trip;
Verdict: beat Carnwennan (+11) by 0.5l over C&D here in February with Cosmelli (+1) over 10l down; Carnwennan has the weight advantage today, but SC has since put in a promising effort in the Ascot Stks for which he’s only been raised 2lbs; only question if this comes a bit too soon, but must have a chance from a good draw.
Carnwennan 5-8-12 (96) Dr 13 (103.5)
’19 record: 3/2/7 ’20 record: 0/2/2
27/02/20 Cl 2 Hcap (194/86.9) 16.5 f AW Newcs 9-12 9/4F 2/1 0.25 l off 94 – 87.5
chased leaders, led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, rallied and every chance closing stages, kept on
Plus: class (W); going (W); distance (W); course (W); form run lto; down 3lbs (wt);
Minus: 121-days break; up 2lbs (OR);
Verdict: completed hat-trick in Cumberland Vase over C&D last year, and although didn’t win again only just denied by Smart Champion (-11) in his final start over C&D; weighted to reverse that running but the lack of a run could be a telling factor.
Rajinsky 4-8-2 (86) Dr 9 (103.3)
’19 record: 2/0/3 ’20 record: 0/1/1
12/06/20 Cl 2 Hcap (97/92.0) 12f gd Newb 8-9 5/1 3/10 6.25 l off 86 – 77.3
tracked leaders in 5th, plugged on into 3rd final 150 yds, no impression
Plus: class (F); going (W); form run lto (15 days); down 7lbs (wt);
Minus: distance (?), course; up in distance;
Verdict: stayed on well to win over 14f at Wolverhampton in December and found 12f too short on his return; 33% win rate overall and jockey won on him before riding out her claim, interesting upped to 16f for the first time, and well drawn.

Of those I’ve left out, Rainbow Dreamer is a 7yo and is drawn in stall 15; neither do well, just 2 from 17 have come from higher than stall 14 and similarly 2 from 17 were 7yo or older, including last year’s winner Who Dares Win. Plus he’s carrying 9-9. Not for me. Cosmelli is another in double jeopardy, and Caravan Of Hope and Anyonecanhaveitall are drawn to the outside. Of those I’ve got left. The 4yos Australis and Rajinsky have to prove they stay the trip, and in Australis’ case the class as well. Carnwennan is closely matched with Smart Champion, but hasn’t run since February. So Smart Champion is my pick, perhaps from Rajinsky and Carnwennan edging out Australis.

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