2020 Democratic Primary

Discuss any of the upcoming elections in the USA
martinkil
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Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

2020 Democratic Primary

Postby martinkil » Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:21 pm

Anybody who has read through my thread for the 2016 US presidential election will not be surprised that I expect Bernie Sanders to be the democratic candidate for the 2020 presidential election and the next president of the US of A.

My first bet on him was back in Aug 2018 at 18.0, the highest I've backed him at was between 34 and 38 after his heart attack. My current average is 26.5. I've laid him back for an average of 10.72 for more than twice my stake so I'm sitting on a tidy profit if he wins. I'm also green on Biden, Warren and Buttigieg the other top democratic contenders. Bernie's price at writing is still 10.5

The first 4 primary states are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Looking at the predictit.org website, Bernie is fav in Iowa, New Hampshire, and joint fav in Nevada, but 2nd fav in South Carolina behind Biden, and most importantly is leading in the delegate rich state on California which has moved it primary up to super Tuesday on March 3rd when Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia also hold their primaries/Caucuss.

The MSM usually either ignore Bernie or poo hoo his chances, but in the last few weeks it been noticeable that he is actually being considered as the possible winner of the Dems contest, although quite rightly ex vice president Biden is the favourite.

Current polling still has Biden as the leader, but Bernie has been gaining and moved past Warren into second place a few weeks back.

Both Biden and Sanders have loyal followings, Sanders through conviction (true believers in his policy positions) and Biden through familiarity as Obama's VP, although interestingly Obama has not endorsed anyone. Support for all other candidates is transitory, many fighting for the same segment of the electorate. Biden's support is older working class and ethnically diverse. Sanders supporters tends to be younger but is also ethnically diverse most noticeably with latino (although not so much with east coast cubans who tend to be more conservative).

As of now less 40 days to the Iowa caucuses and Sanders is in a good position to build some momentum over the first three contests, which could give him a boost going into South Carolina and through into Super Tuesday.

martinkil
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Postby martinkil » Sun Jan 26, 2020 4:17 pm

It's been a month since I last posted and Sanders has surged in the polls.

He's led in a couple of National democratic polls this year and where not leading he's a closing second.

In the first democratic primary, the IOWA caucus, Sanders has led in two of the three reputable poll done this year – there were a couple of polls by partisan groups but they can safely be ignored. The latest a CNN IOWA poll gives Sanders a 7 point lead, and remember polls underestimated Sanders last time because they don't always capture new people which the Sanders campaign aims to engage.

In the second state to primary, New Hampshire proir to 12 Jan 2020 Sanders, Biden and Buttigieg were withing 2/3 points if each other, but in the four polls since Sanders had led in each with a leads of 2, 5, 9 and 12, those 9 and 12 points were from reputable but lesser rated polls (B and A/B by 538).

Sanders price has dropped from 11.0 a month ago to 6.0 second fav today, with Trump shortened up to 1.84, a ridiculous price for such a divisive figure.

bootsnspurs2017
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Postby bootsnspurs2017 » Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:25 pm

Hi

Agree on the Bernie factor, if he had not had the nomination stolen from him last time he would have given the orange man a run for his money.

I follow this channel on youtube who give honest appraisals of the current polls

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvCqiSOV7kE

Incidently I bet on the orange man back in 2016 at 4pm our time the day before and got odds of 8/1 on his win, which he did, crazy eh?

martinkil
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Postby martinkil » Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:48 pm

I also listen to the Hill's Rising most days, and you get a distinctly different narrative from that of the main cable channels, and having it fronted by populist from both the right and left gives it an interesting dynamic.

LoveWinners
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:17 pm

martinkil wrote:with Trump shortened up to 1.84, a ridiculous price for such a divisive figure.



hi boss ,long time no chat.... regarding the outright markets- a quick point were i was at ....nothing since has changed btw.

If you recall my previous post regarding the terrible narrative by cnn/msnbc i suggested it would backfire on the dems and my view now is even stronger than before those discussions.

so looking at the outrights back in november i took on a massive liability on trumps reelection,and in my stubbornness refusing to green up.


im not sure i agree with the above about trumps current price being ridiculous at all for the following reasons ...


impeachments was always going to be DOA and will/has lite a fire in the base, i could write thousands of words explaining why its bad,the case presented by the dems,the timing etc. etc. but its political purpose has been overplayed badly IMO.

The reason i mention impeachments without detail is simply a indicator for movement on base voters but more prevalent removal from office before election day as its an outright market its 0.3% chance he isnt in the head to head (i allotted a 0.1% chance of death :lol: )..So its a near certainty he will be in that theoretical even money race.

now is the hard part....the chance of election success against each possible opponent to see if even at todays price we can conclude that 1.84 is ridiculous in reality? even without looking further 1.84 isnt that bad of a price for any reelection alone, i say this after reviewing past presidents who actually sought reelection and won and contributing factors as to reasons for losing compared to todays climate.

approval ratings at a glance..

We touched on them before but we look at them in different ways - as you posted avb (dem/rep) i look at trends of party confidence and also for analysis of approval rating trends by position (vs past presidents) as more illuminating guides for projections..opposed to polls which are media driven over so as both small samples of voters i want historic trends for my projections as opposed the preset avb poll projections as part of what im happier to use.

i looked at truman to date ...updated since bet placed.

The key things i wanted to look at was the narative of trumps overall decline put forward by media....my conclusion was So what? its something that over all avb (app/dis) means little when comparing it in relevance as opposed to media taking points....comparing start approval vs current, current = same amount of days in office compared to trump.



trump start 45.5
current 42.9
swing -2.6

Harry S. Truman1945-53
Start 87
current 36
swing -51

Dwight D. Eisenhower1953-61
start 68
current 75.9
swing +7.9

John F. Kennedy1961-63
start 72
ATOD 58.2
swing -13.8

Lyndon B. Johnson1963-69
76
48.9
-27.1

Richard Nixon1969-74
59
53.4
-5.6

Gerald Ford1974-77
71
til vs carter 51.5
-19.5

Jimmy Carter1977-81
66
58.8
-7.2

Ronald Reagan1981-89
51
54.1
+3.1

George H.W. Bush1989-93
61
47.1
-13.9

Bill Clinton1993-2001
51
48.4
-2.6

George W. Bush2001-09
53.5
53.7
+0.2

Barack Obama2009-17
64
45.7
-18.3


from the 12 only George W. Bush +0.2pts Ronald Reagan1981-89+3.1 and Eisenhower1953-61 +7.9pts had a higher approval rating as same no. days in office so 75% inc trumps declined ....that highlights my gripe with biased media but narrative over substance is what gets bums on seats so who can blame them? i looked at the trends in a few ways and noted


only clinton and Reagan had higher rating on leaving than entering. concl? dont pay too much attention of polls on a given day

all successful second term presidents polls started to climb from around this day forward. concl? forget previous polling data before this point

a recent trend being 4/5 last presidents served 2 terms concl? nothing unless it continues in modern times?

5/5 last presidents had under 65% when taking office, after trump id be shocked if any candidate exceeds this figure , TDS(trump derangement syndrome ) and the cult of trump are very real and the division is rather fascinating to witness but it will have a rippling effect for years to come...notably the standard for impeachment and judges.

but as previously stated trump is an anomaly ,his graph shows this....


ok after i collected the above i had to analyse each candidate in my predetermined trump vs ? scenario....

each dem candidate was odds against to massive degrees although biden came out closest in terms of winprob


now as this thread and others have been more about bernie's chances ill add some points i factored in to the vs projections

i factored in a campaign against being one of the easiest not for his actual chance of the nom but in the event... are the u.s ready for his likely key campaign talking points? is he just as polarizing as trump? backing of DNC/party but further than the obvious ...his voting record,it looks an easy sell for a campaign against him in a race and 1.6 was the price i came to for a trump victory against the bern.

i came to the conclusion that trumps price in the outright market should be in the 1.68-1.73 range (not knowing opponent) so odds against at that point in time was to good to be true despite me missing far bigger price at an earlier and similarly to when i posted (the 50+ seat senate @4/5 was buying money....as the forum knows by now ill bet 50/1 shots without fear if its value and i think people are to quick to dismiss value at 5/4 or below because its shorter than they like...value has no bias.

im so overextended here though so it will serve me right to go down in flames :roll:


you've greened so doesn't matter but thought ill add to the convo about the outrights :D

martinkil
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Postby martinkil » Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:03 am

Thanks for that analysis Lovewinners.
I've re-read some of our earlier exchanges to refresh my memory.

I've mentioned elsewhere that I was heavily influenced for the 2018 mid-terms by Rachel Bitecofer of the Watson Institute who has a theory of “Negative Partisanship” which helped her predict that 42 seats would change hands in the the 2020 midterms over 3 months before the elections, they actually gained 40.

Last summer ahe published a long range prediction for the 2020 presidential race -http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/ - although she did single out a win for Sanders in the primary as introducing a level of uncertainty.

LoveWinners
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Postby LoveWinners » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:59 am

hi boss, thanks for the link...AN Interesting read.

I too looked for somethings that modeling would undervalue...i wont bore others by details but an interesting deviation was made but in polar opposite opinion, it does begs the question of the feeling of necessities to input either higher error value in a model OR manually adjustment required...rightly or wrongly? its a psychological problem no matter how good a model is(?) its never 100% accurate and when betting with real money no matter what sport/event in mid/longterm singular events lends itself to manual adjustments more so than high volume wagering/predictions.


I'm sitting here as i type feeling an error in my actual manual adjustments...I thought there was a 15% chance that witnesses would be called...

the Dems really dont want anything other than bolton,despite calling on 17 in the investigation,So why not call for any of those?if bolton gets called then it will be a free for all on witnesses ,notably schiff and hunter biden will be a lock. Dems think they can make a case for bolton only...0% that happens in a R controlled senate .

Watching this trial i think its closer to 1% any witnesses gets approved . removal wasnt going to happen regardless so why does that effect my outright probs? its 2 fold - (1) weakness of articles will not be shown as much as id like.(2) the delay and effect of where id like to see approval rating in a certain period ...i think this trial will be over by Monday with 0 witnesses and a pointless exercise by the dems who fear a complete witness calling. We all saw the investigation and the facts haven't changed so without shooting for the stars the needle on trump wont move either way.

Im looking to identify if i should relieve some of my liability? i think if approval doesn't hit 45 by day 1120 (+16 days) ill have little choice..if the trial goes as i think then ill have plenty of time to be looking at short term trends i mentioned earlier...my plan from that point will be 47+ by day 1300 let it ride, 47- by that point ill bail out as effectively as possible .


anyway whats the thought on subscription/donation/adsence or other for patternform? i posted once on the subforum but feel its tough to say too much as its hard to know others financial position? what high value i put on patternform could be more than others? in which case it would be unfair to comment imo... I would happily research and present a fair value compared to similar sites though. just personal value is a sticky road to go down that is uncomfortable to me.

my health is so up and down that i dont always get online but that doesn't reflect the value patternform offers and if we all remember this point it will help with a consensus imo.

if nothing more is said then ill just send over £100 here and there in 2020 and go from there.

thanks.

martinkil
Posts: 3417
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Postby martinkil » Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:03 pm

I'll almost certainly move to subscription from March onward as I'll need to write some software to interface with whichever payment system I choose. It will be £10 a month, and initially I'll leave the main patternform page free, but if I don't get enough subscribers I''ll make that subscription as well.
I do hope your health improves to give a nice spring then summer of racing - and some interesting primaries.

alancardeque2020
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Postby alancardeque2020 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:08 am

Olá... Como será o software?

LoveWinners
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary

Postby LoveWinners » Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:34 pm

thanks for the update regarding subs :D possibly consider sending a message to everyones inbox here would be a good idea as if others are like me we simply forget :oops:

health is up and down but i suppose that goes the same for all of us at some point doesn't it? just small things become magnified for me but making small adjustment to diet and exercise have really made a positive effect for me so hopefully i can take control of my health issue and start to live a somewhat normal life again :)

noticed trumps price is contracting further which is great for me,so just about ready to release some equity (will let 40% ride) so will have a decent pot for cheltenham which i am already looking at some key races and trying to create a model on horse profiles and race trends to get my brain fully immersed into racing...one thing missing what would have been a great asset is the old patternform archives that i used to use to evaluate ratings trends but they aren't available now but will have a crack at it regardless and post up a thread with my findings for the community to have a look and discuss their thoughts if they so choose.

on topic-
latest thoughts on - Michael Bloomberg? in a weak market it doesnt take alot to shift the line of course but the move is interesting considering who it is..cant see it myself though but what i do see is media not giving bernie's campaign the credit he deserves but no surprise there huh? pretty shameless really.


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