Sunday 7th Jun

Using Historical In Running prices to predict runner who may DOB today
martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Sunday 7th Jun

Postby martinkil » Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:47 am

12:55 Hayd - Alternative Fact – 7.2
The 5yo is headed in the market by a trio of 4yo's two of whom have had just 6 starts a piece who are rated 92 and 95. On Alternative Fact's 7th run he was rated 97. He was never able to contend at that rating, but he was mainly contesting class 2 hcaps worth betweem 16k and 100k and managed to dob in 5 of the 6 races worth between 16k and 31k, the failure was when 2nd of 7 trading down to 3.0 from 5.3. The three times he dropped down into class 3 races he dobbed (40 into 8), 10.5 into 3.7, then won on soft going at Newmarket off a rating of 86. Now on 90 he must have a very good chance of at the very least dobbing today. - note he was 9.2 when I started looking at the race, and 8.2 when I started typing this!!

Held up in a crawl of a race :(

martinkil
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 9:55 am

Re: Sunday 7th Jun

Postby martinkil » Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:37 am

3:15 Hayd – Safe Voyage – 3.65
The fav Safe Voyage is progressive winning 5 of his first 6 races last year including a G3 here (is 4/4 at Haydock) but was found out in G2/G1 – but this is a listed race so will be hard to beat having won it's last two seasonal debuts. Needs to hit 1.82 to dob. (I had originally gone for Kynren - who might also dob) but I kept coming back to this fellow.

Down to 1.65 so 2 bets 1 dob - Kynren well left alone.


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